While this season has been massively impacted by COVID. I am probably the most hyped for the QB's than I have been in a while. Easily my favorite class since 2018 and easily the best since 2012 which is 1983 of all QB classes. 1983 featured six quarterbacks were taken in the first round—John Elway, Todd Blackledge, Jim Kelly, Tony Eason, Ken O'Brien, and Dan Marino. Three ended up as Hall of Famers. submitted by
2012 featured first-round draft picks Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, and Brandon Weeden, as well as third-rounder Russell Wilson. By season's end, three more rookie quarterbacks would start their first games – third-round draft pick Nick Foles, fourth-rounder Kirk Cousins, and sixth-rounder Ryan Lindley. While Luck retired early due to injuries ended what would be a hall of fame career, Russell Wilson looks like a lock for the hall and potentially the greatest QB in NFL history if he continues at this pace. Cousins and Tannehill have solidified themselves as legit starting QBs and Foles is a super bowl MVP.
This class features 12 guys to really watch and to me, four really special QBs in Trevor Lawrence, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, and D'Eriq King. Brock Purdy, Iowa State, Jamie Newman, Georgia, Sam Ehlinger, Texas, Kyle Trask, Florida, Shane Buechele, SMU. Kellen Mond, TAMU, K.J. Costello, Mississippi State and Tanner Morgan, QB, Minnesota.
Sunshine (Lawrence) is probably the most talented QB prospect to enter since Elway. Elite arm, arm talent, mobility, size, field vision, and has tremendous Football IQ. He has flaws, he has the Elway/Cutler syndrome where instead of anticipating where the WR is going to be, he sees them open which he can get away with but not always. He gets happy feet at times in a muddy pocket and wants to run. He needs playmakers more than he MAKES playmakers.
Lance has the best tape of the four horsemen. Best deep ball. 2nd best anticipation (King), 2nd best athlete (King), best system flexibility, 2nd best decision-maker (King), the closest prospect to Andrew Luck they say and I agree. His tape is amazing but like Luck, has flaws. Lance barely had a muddy pocket, only 14 sacks in 16 games. He was a big part of it with his pocket mobility but it wasn't that damn good. He rarely had to go to 3rd and 4th options but he did so well. 0 INTs but without elements, it's kinda hard to really evaluate is it real or not.
Fields has tremendous talent, size, the athletic ability for his size, arm strength, and is a solid decision-maker. What I like the most about Fields is his projectability and how well-coached he is as a prospect for a dual-threat guy. While I don't think he's superior QB wise to Haskins, he's a McNabb like athlete and I think he will translate as a solid starting QB in year 1. I do think translating to the NFL will be harder for him than people think but like Josh Allen, he has just enough athletic ability and size to really make things happen in the NFL and his arm is crazy strong as well. Just pure God-given talent and really well-coached.
King is the best QB in this class to ME overall. He reminds me the most of Burrow who was the best QB in the draft to me last year. A system QB who's best in a spread like Kyler Murray. He was PFF's best QB in 2018 in college football and he's on his way to being the best QB in 2020 as well. Like Burrow, he's an older QB, in fact, he's the same age(23) as Burrow and I think that gives him a lot of advantage over TL, JF, and TL who are all 20-21 years old. While he is similar to Burrow, he has elite elusiveness and break tackle ability like a running back. His flaws to me is his size, system flexibility, unlike Burrow, I would like him to have more pocket mobility like Wilson to counteract the lack of size, and he could still work to improve his arm talent like we have seen Wilson do when he joined the Seahawks. When I like a guy, I like him and I gave him a 1st round grade last year if he entered so why not again.
Brock Purdy, Iowa State, Jamie Newman, Georgia, Sam Ehlinger, Texas, Kyle Trask, Florida, Shane Buechele, SMU. Kellen Mond, TAMU, K.J. Costello, Mississippi State and Tanner Morgan, QB, Minnesota.
Purdy has a lot of Baker Mayfield in him including being bad in a muddy pocket. I just don't like him as much as Baker because well, Baker's production was insane. I think Purdy realistically is a 2nd round grade.
Newman has shades of Daunte Culpepper with his deep ball and his tremendous playmaking ability. He lacks the ability to just simply move the chains so personnel will be key with him. The talent and playmaking ability is exceptional but does he fit the modern NFL if he doesn't land on one of these big-play teams is the question. He has tremendous value in the 2nd or 3rd round.
Trask never started a HS game but that's okay because D'eriq King was their QB. Still, Trask got major SEC D1 offers and King did not. Trask had a good first year with the Gators and showed that he's a NFL level QB. I really feel he's in the mold of Kirk Cousins but with more size to boot which will impress scouts. 2nd or 3rd round grade.
Sam Ehlinger, Texas, Shane Buechele, SMU, Kellen Mond, TAMU, K.J. Costello, Mississippi State, and Tanner Morgan are all 4th to 5th rounders to me.
Ehlinger's best shades are a better throwing Tebow which I disagree with because Tebow was a much better football player than Sam is and Taysom Hill which I think actually makes some sense. As a backup, I like him overall.
Buechele is a tremendous system QB in the mold of Case Keenum. Keenum has had a tremendous career as a 2012 undrafted QB. In today's NFL where they are looking for QB's like Buechele as backups over the game managers. I expect Buechele to be taken in the 5th round as the game is changing for backup QBs.
Mond has raw but impactful arm strength, productive, and is an athletic QB who some teams love to bet on as a 1st rounder type. Some will say he's as talented as Jordan Love but I will argue that Love is a far better NFL prospect as he can throw into tight windows and while his decision making needs to improve as well as his mechanics, his arm talent is not off the charts as well. Now, he's a better prospect than someone like Kizer because he is productive, I have a tough time with inconsistent Black QB's almost all either have to produce or they are career backups. They don't get the time that white QB's get. I do think he's a 2nd round talent but I gave him a 5th round grade.
Morgan is a damn relic to me. The Matt Hasselbeck QB's are on the way out. Matt Ryan is the last of the Mohicans. My big issue with him for his style of QB, I would prefer he would be 6'4-6-6. Being that he's 6'2, he needs to be a lot more mobile than he is and I do think he has a strong NFL future but he's a backup at best to me. 4th to 5th round grade.
Overall, I love this QB class. It's deep, has tremendous top-heavy talent, and is worth talking about. I wasn't hyped at all about last year's class and Kyler Murray is a system QB and thankfully went to the right system. This is a class, you have a chance to hit big with a QB. I think teams should consider a QB this year even if you have one already entrenched.
A complete analysis of the Bereznyak-Isayev BI-1 Why it is a very unique vehicle that was overlooked, but will soon be rare and highly valued
The BI is an interesting plane, and due to its in-game characteristics, the setup of the event, and the overall attitude of players, I have realized that it is very likely that this will be an extremely expensive plane soon, and that there is a way to get it discounted right now, but it is only viable until the 12th of October. This post is quite long, but I hope you find it as interesting as I did, and if at all possible, helpful as well.
READ ME: There are four sections to this analysis, each which details why this plane is likely to be sought after; read only the part/s which interest you most, as it is quite long (even by TEC standards). View conclusion for TL;DR.
The most unique gameplay and flight characteristics in War Thunder
From tier I-V there are two basic strategies. Having more energy than the opponent by climbing or staying at high speeds, and turnfighting. Most planes specialize in a certain area while lacking in another another, such as the Fw 190 Ds or P-47s which have great guns, engine power, and energy retention, but sacrifices turnfighting capability and speed. On the other hand we have the A6M1 "Zero" or Spitfire, which can climb well and turn very well, but sacrifice speed, energy retention, and have bad guns. The BI has the capability to do everything that these planes do but better, except it has horrible guns.
Apart from this plane, there are almost none which have good everything, and while the BI has some detriments, it out-preforms every single plane at its tier in every non-weaponry department, especially considering it is at 6.7. The fact that its the only useable rocket plane in the game (RIP Me 163) and it faces propeller planes and early jets means that it has gameplay that is not replicated with any other plane in the game.
In terms of performance, its only detriments come from the fact that it preforms unlike any other plane in the game. You see pilots fly at 100% throttle and dive at 700km/h in this thing then crash because they cant pull up. Compare this to a player who just unlocked their first jet, and starts climbing at 250km/h then tries to dogfight propeller planes. Until then their doctrine was good for propeller planes, but they must learn to adapt to the completely new fighting style. The same goes for the BI. At low speeds it can outturn a Spitfire and Ho 229, especially with flaps. At mid speeds (just under 600km/h) it can pull a sustained 14g, which is nearly impossible save for the Ho 229 and a some Mach capable jets.
At high speeds (600+) The BI is a flying brick, but consider two things. First; it can sustain 750km/h with only 35% throttle, second, it can sustain 500km/h in a climb at 45% throttle and reach 5000m after 2.5 minutes with 60 seconds of fuel left
. Compare this to the British 7,000 GE Premium, the Spitfire FR Mk XIVc, which according to the WT climb chart
, takes 4 minutes and 45 seconds to reach the same altitude at 100% throttle, so the BI already out climbs it by a considerable margin at 35% throttle, while at 100% it can reach that altitude in 1 minute and 10 seconds, over four times faster.
Nothing around these BRs can outclimb this plane, or outrun it either.
It is notable that at low altitudes you get "REDUCE SPEED" warnings around 730 km/h, but it your plane will not rip. Instead, you can go up to 900km/h at which you simply stops accelerating (its your top speed). You dont rip anything at this speed, but your controls are quite sluggish. Processing img p6mhmqtnuyr51...
At over 600km/h other planes have a maneuverability advantage, but this plane can pull up and cut throttle to stay above them, and now as the enemy has been maneuvering, they are slow, and you can swoop down on them or turn in with them, as at slow speeds you excel. If they try to run away, at 35% throttle you can easily outrun them, so if they turn you catch them, and if they run, you catch them. The enemies best bet is trying to make you overshoot, as the BI's incredible energy retention can be a curse at times, as even at 0% throttle you can convert 800km/h into 2500m of altitude, but it also means slowing down to stay on an evasive enemies tail is hard. You can always pull up and out though, and dive back on them as mentioned before.
With such a powerful engine, it is limited with a 1 minute and 57 second fuel load. This is deceiving, as I have tested the longevity of the fuel at different throttle settings, and it is as many have noted, non linear. For the exact data on how long fuel lasts, check out this post
. If the fuel consumption and throttle percentage were directly correlated, you would expect that for 60 seconds of fuel; 100% throttle would last 60 seconds, 10% would last 600 seconds, and 1% would last 6000 seconds, while in reality as it is non-linear, 100% lasts 60 seconds, 10% lasts 6,600 seconds (1h 50m), and 1% lasts for 660,000 seconds (183 hours). At 35% throttle you have about 8 mins of fuel, a respectable amount, and as mentioned above, you can sustain 750km/h. This engine is even more powerful than the other rocket plane, the 163, but the 163 is at 8.0-8.7 where it faces MiGs and Sabres, while this plane is at 6.7 where it faces P-51s and Me 262s, and it can completely dominate them.
The % of throttle used exponentially increases the fuel used. But this is deceiving, the airframe of this plane creates almost no drag, so cutting throttle doesn't really limit top speed, only makes it take longer accelerate to such speeds. At most throttles the BI can sustain a very high top speed, as it only needs a bit of thrust to counteract what air resistance it does experience, so it can stay at high speeds. You almost never want to use throttles above 50%. The situations in which high throttles can be useful is in a stallfight when you need more thrust to hang in the air a bit longer, if you are at low speeds and need to get the energy advantage quickly, be it getting to a top speed then throttling down, or climbing up to escape low enemies. When hunting bombers do not use full throttle, as at high altitudes your rip speed and controllability decreases significantly, and you will never reach high enough altitudes if you waste your fuel in a 100% throttle and 60 degree climb, you wont have fuel left over, but at 35% you climb slower, but still much faster than anything else, and by the time bombers start reaching your bases, you can easily be at 6000-7000 meters with a good amount of fuel left.
As fuel efficiency is quite important, it would be very useful if someone who is good with data and aeronautical concepts could find the most efficient throttle + angle of climb combination for this aircraft. From what I have seen, 35% throttle at 400km/h is quite efficient and can get you to altitude fast.
Now about its guns. In protection analysis you can compare the damage of AP-I and FI-T, but not HE, and although there is info about the 20mm ShVAK in-game and on the wiki page, no where could I find the muzzle velocities of each round, and much info is from years ago, so finding accurate reliable information was hard. I, along with many players would be grateful if u/gszabi99
could extract the data for the damage and velocity of different types rounds, or if Gaijin would allow us to do protection analysis for every round, as until now the consensus on best belts are based on speculation.
From what I can tell, the HE has a bad reputation. On protection analysis, AP-I does good damage when hitting a critical component, but doesn't do well on wings or the main fuselage. I would estimate that without a pilot snipe or fire, it would take 3-4 shells to the same spot of the wing to snap it, four shells to the tail to break the controls, but only 1-2 shells to destroy an engine. FI-T appears to explode on impact, but does little damage. It would probably take 3-4 shells to the same spot to snap a wing, five to the tail to kill the controls, but four for an engine. Overall, the AP-I seems better, as it appears to have a higher muzzle velocity, is likely to start fires (which can kill much more reliably then the guns damage itself), and pens more, so is more likely to reach the pilot. FI-T can also be useful, but seems to spark more often, and its lack of pen make it useless when hunting bigger planes. For dogfighting it can be better, as snapshots during turning tend to hit flat wings, and while AP-I passes right through, FI-T damages the whole wing. Its lack of pen doesn't matter, as planes that dogfight you are small and lightly armored, and the spread of damage can do more on a hit. If your style is being on an enemies tail and fighting armored and big enemies, AP-I is best for fires, pilot snipes, and killing engines. If you prefer turnfighting, snapshots, and fighting light enemies, FI-T might be best for you.
On the topic of guns, from what I am seeing, the Russian air tree is preforming much worse in the current meta then its contemporaries. From tier I to VI its planes are generally outclassed, with few notable exceptions such as the MiG-17AS and the IL-2s. At low-mid tiers their engine performance and guns are mediocre, and in upper tiers the Phantom is dominant. Gaijin will surely see that people are not grinding out the Russian tree nearly as much as other nations with better planes. I cant predict what they will change to attempt to balance this, or even if they will do anything about it at all, but it is possible that, as we have seen in the past, if a certain thing is underperforming, it will have its characteristics improved, and if it is over preforming, vice versa. I think we can all agree that ShVAKS are underperforming, but the question is whether Gaijin will do anything about it.
It is easily a 7.7 worthy in terms of performance, but its bad guns mean it is 6.7 and faces props and early jets, both of which can do nothing against it if the pilot is smart and does not take unnecessary risks. It reminds me of the He 100 when it was at 1.7. A plane that preforms incredibly well, but as it had guns worse those that of biplanes, it was placed at a br at which it faced biplanes, and nothing could touch it. Good players were in a position where they could not be killed if they played it right, and could shred the enemy team.
Overall it could be argued that it is the best plane at its BR, but it depends on how much you like guns. If you are experienced in nations with bad guns such as Brittan, Russia, Japan, and France, you may like this plane. If you are more inclined to nations with powerful guns, having to adjust to shitty guns would probably not be fun. Below is a list of pros and cons it has compared to other planes it faces.
- Best MER (Maneuvering Energy Retention)
- Best low speed maneuverability
- Great mid speed maneuverability (Almost as much as 229)
- Best climb rate
- High top speed in level flight (900km/h)
- Good top speed in a dive (Mach 0.81)
- Best acceleration
- Best poweweight ratio (Even good compared to tier VIs)
- Guns have low rate of fire which helps conserve ammo
- Very unique
- Good repair cost
- Interesting in Sim
- Could be acquired for free/cheap
- Expensive now that the event is over (85 Gjn at the moment of posting)
- Guns are bad
- 45 RPG
- Controls lock up at 600km/h
- Fuel load requires throttle control
- Plane is less controllable and more susceptible to rips at high altitudes and in dives
As a summary of its characteristics; it is better then everything it faces, but its lackluster guns make it rare to be able to use its performance advantages to get more than two kills per sortie.
The setup of the "Strategist" event will make it very rare
There are a few things I have seen about the event itself that are extremely likely to make the BI very rare. First; although we are in quarantine, people are very busy with work and school, and it took around four hours a day for 10 days to get the Merk or the BI. It was also during the work week, so most people could only grind those four hours in addition to the work they already had, and one weekend. If people had a day or two off, they may have been able to grind it then, but Gaijin in their infinite wisdom capped the rewards at 40 per day, so players could only earn 1/6th of the materials needed (3 offensive docs at 80 intel per doc means 40 intel x 6 days). Thus to get it for free you had to participate in an intense grind for the max reward for at least 6 days, and many people didn't have the time. This was bound to make the reward rare, as who in their right mind would spend hours every day on intense grind for a videogame? (Needless to say I am not in my right mind)
The second characteristic which makes the BI rarer is the fact that the Merk comes before the BI, and in addition, the Merk can be exchanged for the BI, but the BI cant be exchanged for the Merk. Go to the Strategist map and you will see what I mean; three docs for a Merk coupon, and the Merk coupon can be exchanged for a BI coupon. If you had the choice between getting a BI or a Merk for free right now, the logical decision would be to get the Merk, because you know if you get the BI, you are stuck with the BI, but if you get the Merk, you have a chance to exchange it if in the end you decide that you would prefer the BI. This means more players will keep the Merk, as well as put the Merk up for sale rather than the BI, because its logical that if you can exchange it for a BI, it would be more valuable because it gives you the chance to get both instead of just being worth itself. It was also believed and repeated by Youtubers covering the event that the Merk would be the better vehicle to sell to make money. Considering the pervious two points, it is odd to consider that in practice the BI coupon is selling for 5 gjn more than the Merk. We will get into the reasons why this happened in the next section, but it has to do with the fact that the Merk appears to be the better reward (as we reasoned logically before), and thus people kept it and neglected the BI, making the BI rarer in the end.
As the Merk was exchangeable for the BI, most people kept the Merk. As of right now there are 9.3 times more Merks than BIs on the market. The last characteristic of the event that will make the BI much more rare is the fact that the Merk will no longer be exchangeable for the BI on the 12th. As we have seen, there are disproportionately more Merks than BIs, and when the possibility to exchange the one to the other stops, there will still be many times more Merks than BIs, making the BI much rarer.
How players see the BI + how they act in the market
One of the most interesting and hard to measure variables about things like these event vehicles are peoples opinions towards them. Fortunately for me, there are myriads of Reddit and fourm posts from the average player about their feelings on the event, as well as many Youtube posts about the event which most WT players watch, and my own experience in the game, where I played consistently with and against teams full of Merkvas, while in Air battles there were only 2-3 BIs per game, and I was able to talk with players of each to get a general impression of what they think of them.
The first thing to consider is the first impression everyone had when the event was announced. The first thing almost everyone saw was that there is a rocketplane with two shitvaks, only 45 RPG, and less than 2 mins of fuel, and almost every comment about it was that it would be really bad. From what we knew, all signs said it would be true! We had no idea that its flight characteristics would turn out to be practically the best at its tier, it would have more engine power than the 163, and the fuel would be manageable with throttle control. On the other hand, we had the Merkava 3D. This was seen as easily the better vehicle, from first sight is is a very good looking tank, while the BI looked like dildo with wings. On top of that, the Merk boasted the best round in the game, good general performance, part of a Israeli collection, has a good supporting lineup and a great repair cost. Based on this primary info, the BI seems quite bad, just a meme plane, while the Merk seems like a very good vehicle.
Now lets consider the Youtubers. They are good players who had early access to the vehicles, and have quite an influential voice. What they say, especially if many of them agree, would be believed by the majority of their audience, and thus those interested in grinding the vehicles (Especially if it reinforces their first impression). In all the videos of early gameplay and ideas for how to grind the event, the advice that the Merk was the better vehicle, and that to make money it would be best to sell the Merk, was almost universal. Everyone who made a video said that the BI itself was ok, but its guns were extremely frustrating to the point of being almost useless, while the Merk was portrayed as quite good. Now there is a thing to consider about WT Youtubers. As it is usually one of their prime sources of income/favorite hobbies, they play WT a lot, more than the average player and their viewers. As they play so much, they get really good, and for tanks; "No armor is best armor" (Phlydaily). The gun is the thing that matters the most to really good players, and armor is there for if a mistake is made and you are in a position where the enemy can shoot you (Spookston and others). As Youtubers tend to be above average players, they note it has the best gun (round) in the game, and ok survivability. As they are very experienced, they can position themselves so as to not get killed, and with the best round, do really well. But as mentioned before, armor is for if mistakes are made, and boy does the average player make mistakes.
Even in my B1 ter and Tiger H1 (famously OP tanks), I can get penned a lot because I make mistakes. Nearly everyone agrees that the Tiger H1 is OP at its br, almost unpenable if played right, but if a flanking enemy shoots you, you get sniped, or there is more than one enemy to angle against, you are easily penned. It takes a good player to position correctly, to know when and how much to angle, to not ever expose a flat plate. I tend so hear people say that when they play allies they can never pen Tigers, but when they play Tigers they always get penned. The point I am trying to make is that the average player is average, and not having armor to protect them when they fuck up means they die. Look at the OP R3, and yet most R3 players rush a cap and come in guns blazing and get killed instantly. It is a good vehicle, but the lack of armor makes the average player not do great in it. The R3 is similar to the Merk in the fact that they are really good vehicles with bad armor, and while they are great for experienced players who know every spot in the map and how to correctly position by heart, most will just push and be disappointed when they get killed by a sniper every time. Long story short, the Youtubers said that the Merk was a really good vehicle because of its gun, but for most players its just OK if not underwhelming, and the the state of allied 10.3 confirms it. When considering the BI, Youtubers opinions started to change once they had the BI for longer. It started out as being not recommended at all, but slowly they began to learn how to fly it and that it is actually quite fun. This change is the same learning curve we all have experienced with jets. It was a completely new and unique playstyle, and even the really good players had bad first experiences because they didnt know how to fly it properly and use all its incredible performance advantages. Thus, slowly the BI has been enjoyed by those who play it more and more, and consequently, the opinions of the Youtubers and players about it have improved.
Initial opinions about the BI/in favor of the Merk: A BI... to fly - War Thunder
Napalmratte 🔴First Look - Bereznyak-Isayev BI-1 - War Thunder LiveStream🔴
WhooptieDo The Issue with War Thunder's events
Ash War Thunder's Event Problem
Spookston War Thunder - Merkava Mk.3D "The Hard Hitting Prize!"
Bo Time Gaming Holding The Line - Merkava Mk.3D War Thunder
DEFYN Merkava Mk.3D - IT IS HERE - Crafting Event "Strategist" Vehicle...
Players who I had met in-game who had just unlocked the BI crashed or ran out of fuel and ammo a lot, and said that it was ok but its guns were trash and its flight characteristics were very weird.
Recent positive opinions on the BI: Day 3 Thoughts - Wargame "Strategist" - War Thunder
TheEuropeanCanadian RUSSIAN SPACE INTERCEPTOR...
PhlyDaily 2 Minute Hero
The Iron Arminian The Russian Ohka | War Thunder BI
Players wo have played the BI for longer now, such as those who have spaded it, appear to get 1-2 kills on average per sortie, then btb to rearm and come back to the combat. Overall they usually get 1-3 kills per game and rarely die. They say that it is very fun once you get the hang of it, and that you can easily outmaneuver the enemy, stay alive, and get shots on target, but the worst part is the 45rpg and bad damage. Even with every shot on target after getting an enemy slow, only 45 chances to shoot limits how much the planes superb performance can be used before a btb.
Now lets consider value. As the BI was first considered to be trash, the initial expectations of the market were quite low: Processing img fdugkuukfyr51...
While in contrast the Merk had many buy orders, and for higher prices. This makes sense as people thought that it was much better. As people began finishing the event, they would keep whichever they wanted more, usually the Merk judging by the lack of entire teams of BIs at 6.7. If they wished to sell, they would but up the Merk, as everyone said it was more valuable and would sell better. Thus the Merk coupons came onto the market by the hundreds, while even now there are less than a hundred BI coupons for sale. Now armed with the knowledge of supply of each vehicle, lets look at the current prices of each. The lowest 32 sale orders for the Merk are 80 gjn, while there is a single BI going for 85gjn, then more priced higher. This doesnt make sense, why is the coupon for the supposed better vehicle (which can also be exchanged for the more expensive one) cheaper than the supposed worse one? You could just buy the Merk for cheaper and exchange it for a BI through the Strategist map, why is the price so high? The answer is a fundamental principal of supply and demand, the fact that the fewer of something there is, and by extension the rarer something is, the more valuable it is. As of right now, the advice has been to not sell the BI, but to sell the Merkava, which means everyone intending to sell, either listed a Merk coupon on the market, or is saving it to sell when the price goes up, and much fewer have done similarly with the BI. The only thing keeping them more or less balanced is the fact that you can exchange a Merk for a BI, so their differences in price are limited. But soon the final stage of the event will be over, and this conversion will be no longer possible, leaving a ton of players with Merk coupons on the market, and an extremely limited number of BI coupons. This precipitates a huge inflation in the cost of the BI, because as of now only around 90 new BIs will ever be created, while there are hundreds of Merks that can be redeemed.
As it is such a unique vehicle, and the opinion of those who play it is generally improving, it will likely be highly regarded, and as such drive up its price quite a bit on top of the fact that it is going to be quite rare already. Something quite similar happened with the AU-1 from the last event, but now there much less BIs on the market than AU-1s after 6 months, and the AU-1 is not nearly as unique as the BI!
Two chances to buy it for cheap
Right now the BI is going for 85 Gajouble Roubles, but if you are interested there are two ways to pick it up for less. Unfortunately, as it was an event vehicle, there is no way to get it for free anymore, and the limited supply means that the price will only go up as it gets rarer.
The first method is one I thought up and made a post about earlier
which you may have seen. It involves buying the Merkava, which due to saturation is going for 5 gjn less than the BI, then going to the Strategist crafting map and converting your Merkava into a BI. Its easy and saves you 5 bucks, but if you want to do this you better hurry, as the event ends in a few hours and you wont be able to exchange it for a BI any longer.
The second method is less sure, but will probably work. As the anniversary sale approaches, sellers in the market, including the sellers of the BI, will want money to spend during the sale, and thus will sell their vehicles for lower prices instead of holding out at a higher price. If the sale is really good this year, then the price will lower more because they will really want the money to buy the packs on sale. The drawbacks are that from now to the sale the price could rise substantially and even with the lowered price cost more then you can get it for now, and if the sale is bad, then the price of the BI wont lower.
After looking at all aspects of the event, the behavior of the players, and the vehicle itself, I have found that it is a very fun and good vehicle if used right, and that it is more unique than any other vehicle on the market except the E 100 and the P-59, all of which offer a completely unique experience that can be replicated by practically no other vehicle in game. The Merk is has a good gun and looks good, but is not that unique, while the BI is very fun.
In terms of value, the BI is already much rarer than the Merk, and its cost on the market will soon increase to surpass the Merk by far. If you are interested in it, I would recommend acquiring it soon before it gets too expensive.
If you have a still have a coupon and are deciding which vehicle to redeem; first consider your current experience with top tier American tanks. If you enjoy that type of combat, would like an addition to your top tier lineup, or want to use this tank to grind tier VII, the Merk offers what you want. If you dont play high tier ground RB and dont have a lineup at that BR, want a vehicle that offers significant advantages over the enemy, and want to have fun and not stock grind, than the Merk may not be for you. If you want a vehicle that offers an experience unlike any other in the game and you find outmaneuvering your opponents fun, the BI may be for you. You dont need a lineup, you dont need to suffer a bad stock grind and horrible team composition, and you dont even need to have any Russian planes, you can just get it and start flying.
Truly the best reward is the Lübeck F224. A decent amount of grinding to get a quite good vehicle, although because Gaijin didn't design Naval battles to be fun no one plays them. If they added some more good sea premiums I am sure they would revamp naval because they would have an incentive to do so. It could be fun as well if low tier sea grind wasn't so terrible.
The worst reward is easily the half track. At such a low BR, battles are rarely fun. The vehicle itself may be iconic, but if it was the 75mm variant at a higher BR I would be much more inclined to get it.
If I were to design the event there are a few things I would change. I would still want it to be necessary to grind so people would play and get these rewards on top of normal tree grind, a win-win, but not to much to burn out the participants. Ideally, there would be two tiers of reward instead of three, the first with the 75mm variant of the half track or the Lübeck. This way there are two good vehicles to choose from for a lesser grind, and people are happier for it. It may also entice more players to get into naval. The second tier reward would be the BI or the Merk, as these are good vehicles and the grind is just right. In addition only tier III and up would be allowed, no more sealclubbing innocent new players with the B1 ter or F4U 1A. In addition to these rewards I would make gameplay more important in getting the rewards. When I was grinding, I could drop a single bomb from my 264 and be AFK the whole match and get enough activity for the reward, but in a fighter I needed more than one kill to do that, and you don't have the option to climb into space as you need to fight for activity. There was a pitiful reward for actual performance, the assault groups, and even then you only got it if you got first place. I would make the event last slightly longer as well, and perhaps add another reward to each tier to make there be good variety and represent minor nations. Thus players would be satisfied to get one or two of their preferred vehicles, while those set on hardcore grind could get all three tier one rewards and one tier two, or two tier two rewards and one tier one reward max.
I procrastinate writing my essays for school by writing an essay for WT, ironic.
Some information I referenced may have changed slightly between me writing it and you reading it, for example, it may be after 12:00 GMT on the 12th, so exchange of coupons will no longer be available, and the market data may have shifted a bit.
As of the exact moment of posting the event will end in 6h 32m. It is 11:27, I have school tomorrow, and I am tired so I will check responses in the morning.
If you have read my whole paper, good job! (If you just scrolled here, see the TL;DR in the previous section)
I wrote it because I want to help any players who are interested as well as players who have the BI and are learning how to fly it, and because what I saw and learned seemed very interesting to me, and I wanted to share it with others who may be as interested about this event. If I am wrong in a certain area, or some info is not up to date, please let me know.
Not Financial Advice (NFA)
Warning: Wall of Text. If you hate reading just skim through the bolded/italicized
Ever since I publicized my findings on DKNG, the stock has underperformed & probably has fucked a lot of people here, especially given the overly bullish stance back in June. Unless you took my advice & got into Puts then, congrats, welcome to tendie town. For the ADHD retards, here’s what the next wall of text is going to summarize: I believe at the current price of ~$30, the stock is oversold
A tech-focused, high-growth Company that has made sports betting easy to understand with an aesthetically pleasing interface similar to how Robinhood has neatly laid out stock market gimmicks so even high-schoolers can make sense of it I believe, is underpriced at these levels.
Let’s get into some details as to why the stock has underperformed:
First off, the news slate revolving sports with the rumored delay/cancellation of the MLB season & the NFL watching from the sidelines is in my view, just a part of why the stock has underperformed. We’ll revisit this later in this post, but I want to focus on the drivers of the stock’s recent underperformance, & why these factors are now in the rearview mirror. Part I – The Past Has Passed – SPAC-related Equity Dilution
History lesson first: DKNG went public via a SPAC merger, which has exploded in popularity recently. Anyone serious about analyzing stocks going forward needs to do their homework on this, Google is your friend.
A feature of most SPAC merger to public listings that creates a headwind to near-term share prices are embedded equity dilution events, usually in the form of earn-outs (stock bonuses to execs, the SPAC sponsor) & conversion of Warrants.
On 5/24, the earn-outs were triggered, adding 6m shares to the share count.
On 6/26, 16.3m warrants converted to DKNG, netting them ~$188m of cash.
Stepping back a little, in addition to the above, on 6/18 DKNG launched a follow-on equity offering of 16M shares @ $40/Share , receiving $621M in proceeds.
The last part is tricky to understand from a dilution perspective. To simplify, historically it’s almost a coin toss whether a Company’s shares outperform on the onset of an equity offering. While issuing shares does dilute the existing shareholder base, it theoretically shouldn’t, if the proceeds from the offering are earmarked for investments/projects that yield outsized returns. This is the reality for the long term, theory for the short-term. For the short-term, the ‘reality’ isn’t that the proceeds will be used for investments/projects that yield outsized returns, it is more about how convincing management is to investors that the investments they intend to pursue with the proceeds will outweigh the dilutive effects of issuing incremental shares. That’s a mouthful, but hopefully you get what I’m trying to convey.
All of this stuff put together – the Company has increased its share count by ~39M, but now has a whopping ~$1.4Bn of cash
. More on this in the next section. Part II – MLB News Should Not Fucking Matter & DKNG Is Positioned As the Leading Online/Mobile Sports Platform
DKNG should not be so tied to MLB news or any of this shit as the ongoing success of the NBA/NHL season + Soccer in Europe has effectively created a blueprint on how to regulate player behavior so that they maintain professionalism amidst the pandemic. I’m going out on a whim here, but I truly think the MLB threatening a cancellation of the season is pure posturing to get these fuckers to behave appropriately. Maybe a ‘bubble’ is what it takes to get these players to focus on their jobs instead of going out & contracting COVID, but I argue that isn’t necessarily required given Soccer in Europe. So there’s already a proven path here without the need for a bubble in Soccer, so MLB/NFL should be fine, and execs need to study how they got it done in Europe. Okay, back to some facts.
Anecdotally, I’ve kept in touch with a handful of sports bookies from California to New York & even internationally about what they’re seeing – all of them say that since the NBA season started on 7/30 & since Soccer (especially the Premier League) resumed in June, along with other leagues like La Liga & Serie A, they’ve seen massive increases in betting.
These numbers are also showing up in the official data :
- Average % increase in sports betting handle from April 2020 to June 2020 (handle is the total $ wagered in sports bets) from the states that reported up to June 2020 (NJ, PA, MS, RI, WV, IA, IN, NH) of +258%!
- Note: NV is left out due to the site I sourced showing a weirdly negative number – so I dug into the official filings & show specifically, Sports Mobile betting growth from June since April has growing by at least +73% 
REMEMBER: This is for June only! No NBA, No NHL, No MLB, just Soccer, Golf, NASCAR & UFC.
The data clearly shows that there was a ton of pent-up sports betting demand, which leads one Wall St. analyst to think that betting on the NBA/NHL could ABSORB the MLB’s sports betting handle
(handle = total $ size of sports bet) . Remember, the MLB season is still ongoing, with games being played. The entire focus is on the Miami Marlins & St. Louis Cardinals. Fucking retards.
Additionally, I want to remind everyone that DraftKings.com is the #1 Fantasy sports website in the U.S.
. Also, since April 2020 site visitations are up +86%
 & Google Search Trends for “Draft Kings” is up ~3x compared to PRE-COVID levels
. What does this mean? They are piquing more people’s curiosity than prior to COVID/ongoing slate of sports.
This is important because remember that ~$1.4Bn chest full of cash I mentioned DKNG had assembled earlier? Well, that money is being put to work & results are already coming in, which is exactly what DKNG intended to do with it. Part III – Legalization of Sports Betting in the U.S.
I could write a fucking bible on this topic alone, but for now we’ll stick to some basics. Due to COVID, it’s easy to understand that each State’s financial situation is clearly in shit. Because of this, you better believe that these guys are going to start taking a hard look at how they can extract additional tax revenues, & what’s one of the easiest ways to do this? Legalization & taxation of gambling.
The big players: CA, TX, FL & NY. First, CA pushing its legislation out to 2023 was fucked up, but here’s a twist I want to add to this: Anything that has to do with gambling in CA you better believe is lobbied against by not just the Tribal casino owners in CA, but by the deep pockets of Las Vegas money. Similar thing can be said for FL, but let’s take a look at some actions by LV/nationwide gambling companies that are starting to align financial incentives with guys like DKNG.
- MGM / GVC Holdings JV in BetMGM - $450m total invested
- PENN invests $163m into BS Sports
- Caesars has a 20% stake in William Hill plus partnership deals with The Stars Group (TSG) & our winner DKNG for operating its sports books
So it’s safe to say going forward, nationwide legalization of sports betting will reap rewards for everyone involved, & no longer be something LV money is completely focused on safeguarding.
Let’s also not forget that DKNG didn’t become the Company they are today because of their fancy app, but because their management team has a HISTORY of navigating the U.S.’s legal framework to get what they want out of it.
- The Crown Jewel – The Internet Gambling Prohibition & Enforcement Act: I said it in a previous post, but I want to emphasize that them getting Fantasy Sports to be labeled a ‘game of skill’ by FEDERAL Law as opposed to gambling is just something for the history books. Fucking genius shit. When this happened I bet every casino from LV to every Indian Tribe that has one was against it, yet DKNG & other DFS providers won.
- There’s more, but more recently: Getting into IL:
- In IL, there’s an 18-month ‘penalty box’ for Companies that offer DFS to offer sports betting. Our guys at DKNG created a workaround to this situation with their partnership with Casino Queen . DKNG being savvy again.
These guys are at the cutting edge of creating legal frameworks to successfully launch their products & now with more of their ‘competitors’ financially aligned with them, combined with financial deterioration of State budgets, we should see an overweighting of good news vs. bad on the legal front. Final Part – Share Price Targets Under-fucking priced at anything below $42.50 Near-term catalysts:
8/14: DKNG files 2Q’20 results, might be shitty, but you can bet that the Earnings Call is going to contain rhetoric on how massive the uptick in sports betting has been since late June/July.
Sometime from now until November: NY releases ‘study’ by Spectrum Gaming on online/mobile sports betting.
8/20 – 9/7: PGA Championship for FedEx Cup Title
9/5 – KY Derby
9/10: NFL KickOff Game
9/17: PGA U.S. Open Start Date
Month of October: NBA/NHL Playoffs
10/1: Estimated launch of online sports betting in TN
11/1: Estimated launch of online sports betting in VA
 Wall St. Research – DKNG on 6/29/20
; Note: Nevada did not break out April/May figures but from the Revenue difference of 3 month ended June 30 of 4,950 vs. month of June of 2,297 for a total difference of 2,653 spread evenly over April/May for a base case April estimate of 1,327.
 Wall St. Research - 7/27/20
Feb 23-29, 2020 vs. Current Aug 2 – Aug 8, 2020
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