How To Bet Parlays: Do's and Don'ts MyBookie Sportsbook

bliponaship - Week 5 Picks

Rough week. No excuses. Texas and LSU are not who I thought they were. Good to know moving forward. Reminds me of Week 5 last season where I went -20.10u. But if you stuck it out last year, we were back into the black before too long, and I intend to do the same thing again! Let's roll with week 5.

Week 4 Picks Recap

10U LOCK - TEXAS -16.5 VS TEXAS TECH FOR -110 = Loss
Added Picks:
Season Total Picks: 9-10 for -9.65 units

Week 5 Picks

Added plays:

Hail Mary Parlay

Thanks to u/BrandPlanner for the suggestion. I'll share what I'm betting on for a money line parlay with really large odds. This parlay is just for fun and won't count towards weekly winnings. As a note, I typically round robin these picks.
Baylor ML (-140) / Ole Miss ML (+190) / Air Force ML (+215) / North Texas ML (-120) for +2770
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If you are opening an account at an online Sportsbook, I suggest Bovada or BetOnline.
For Bovada, feel free to use my link to get a bonus: https://www.bovada.lv/welcome/P2A59D31C/join?extcmpid=rafcopy
For BetOnline, feel free to use this link for a bonus: https://beta.betonline.ag/?RAF=YINTIRD5&product=SPO
submitted by bliponaship to CFBVegas [link] [comments]

bliponaship - Week 7 Picks

Week 6 Picks Recap

Added Picks:
Week 6 Picks went 4-7 for -5.87 units
Season Total Picks: 21-24 for -14.12 units

Week 7 Picks

Added Plays

Hail Mary Parlay

WKU ML (+410) at UAB / Arkansas ML (+140) vs Ole Miss / Memphis ML (+120) vs UCF for +2593
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If you are opening an account at an online Sportsbook, I suggest Bovada or BetOnline.
For Bovada, feel free to use my link to get a bonus: https://www.bovada.lv/welcome/P2A59D31C/join?extcmpid=rafcopy
For BetOnline, feel free to use this link for a bonus: https://beta.betonline.ag/?RAF=YINTIRD5&product=SPO
submitted by bliponaship to CFBVegas [link] [comments]

bliponaship - Week 6 Picks

Week 5 Picks Recap

Added plays:
Week 5 Picks went 8-7-1 for +1.4 units
Season Total Picks: 17-17 for -8.25 units

Week 6 Picks

Added Picks:

Week 6 Hail Mary Parlay

Last week we had the two underdogs win (Ole Miss +190 & Air Force +215) but the favorites went down. If you RR'd the picks per my suggestion, you profited a bit!
Tulane ML (+205) / Texas ML (+110) / Kansas State ML (+265) for +2238
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If you are opening an account at an online Sportsbook, I suggest Bovada or BetOnline.
For Bovada, feel free to use my link to get a bonus: https://www.bovada.lv/welcome/P2A59D31C/join?extcmpid=rafcopy
For BetOnline, feel free to use this link for a bonus: https://beta.betonline.ag/?RAF=YINTIRD5&product=SPO
submitted by bliponaship to CFBVegas [link] [comments]

bliponaship - Week 4 Picks

I'm REALLY excited for this Week 4 slate. There are a lot of lines that I can't believe are up right now. I considered heavily making some of the 2u bets locks, but decided not to this early on in the season. Needless to say, I'm hammering them!
Week 3 Recap
Added Picks:
Week 3 Picks went 2-1 for +1.9 units
Season Total Picks: 5-5 for +0.6 units
Week 4 Picks
EDIT, UPGRADING TEXAS -16.5 TO A LOCK
Added Picks:
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If you are opening an account at an online Sportsbook, I suggest Bovada or BetOnline.
For Bovada, feel free to use my link to get a bonus: https://www.bovada.lv/welcome/P2A59D31C/join?extcmpid=rafcopy
For BetOnline, feel free to use this link for a bonus: https://beta.betonline.ag/?RAF=YINTIRD5&product=SPO
submitted by bliponaship to CFBVegas [link] [comments]

Psycho Betting and Stats 301-Degenalytics Question

!!!!DISCLAIMER:!!!!
Before you even start watching this for entertainment and see if you get offended by this un-P.C. content. Don't be a pussy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Igsb3ejgbL8
If you can't handle it, leave this thread. If you can, then you may proceed to the next level.
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📰📜Story📜📰:
I've been scatter-brained, ire-filled, soul-searching and lost after a 7-day Degen Marathon that brought a shit load of misfortunes. I used to hate social media, but I've learned how to wield the soc. med. sword like a fucking Degen Jedi. I'm going to promote an honest cause where I seek to be victorious in the end. Just you watch you fucking doubters, haters, blockers, scammers. How much grit and intellect would the average fucking person have to endure what I've gone through in the last fucking 48 hours and still come out alive with a sense of greater purpose?
Had about $400 to $500 in righteously earned bonus dollars earned through impossible grinding degen mission that came pretty close to accomplishing (91%).
I would have had some imaginary >$600 BR by now, but instead the roll-over deadline caused the entire deposit to be forfeited and I manage to salvage some $100.
Due to a bonus rollover scheme, 80U of my balance was stuck in bonuses and if I fail to accomplish the roll-over by the deadline, it all gets forfeited.
With a $500-$600 balance, I could have somewhere at $900-1000 by now after a 20-2 W-L record on European football on Wednesday.
How did I get that record yesterday, by sampling a bunch of solid pre-game picks and live betting using my own fucking brain. I consult with the finest in capping. With $10-$20 bet sizes, That would have put me up maybe $15x16 = +$240 at minimum. $1000 was the imaginary bank roll. As of today, betting with $1 units, after Monday-Wednesday's successful run, while Tuesday was a -$50 blip, I converted $100 to about close to $200 (40U).
🤪🤑Psycho Betting🤑🤪:
I learned the art of psycho betting. Taking some well-advised 10U and 30U psycho bets that put my bankroll up a significant amounts, but a big loss does the opposite. Yesterday I manage to hit 4 grand 30U slams in a row, however many on juiced lines, so each $30 bet one returns about $15-20. Thus my bankroll grew nearly +100 units and sits close to $200 from the initial $100 I manage to salvage after that bonus robbery.
If you want to fucking learn the art of Psycho-Betting to the extremest and be successful at it, fucking put in $100 in Bovada (remember to use money that you can afford to lose) and get that fucking bonus for the purpose of looting the bookies in a successful vengeance scheme. This guy is a fucking Artillery: https://twitter.com/GoTimeCappers.
Fucking hit more than 4x30U grand slams yesterday and some 10-20U cherries on top. I tailed his free picks and other through consultation [Haha fucking reddit/sportsbook will probably ban me for promoting another tout, :)].Of course with my $1.5U size on a crippled bank roll, I cannot grow it to as much as I wanted to using GoTime's techniques. I would have been at another +$400 if I had $6 units. It's a high risk and high reward system, but if you are confident with your picks you go big on it. If you lose it, then you grind back with smaller 10U and 20U bets to try to get back to part to be able to do another 30U bet. The goal is to be like 2-1, 3-0 on 30U grand slams a day. There is some level of sustainability and back up plans to execute in case the 30U bet did not work out. It is very improbable for you to lose 10 in a row on well researched picks that the experts in the community have common agreement on. A lot of the times, the lines shift to reward you less for the pick since big money is already on the pick.
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!!!!!DISCLAIMER: DO NOT READ BEYOND HERE IF YOU HATE MATH OR HAVE AN IQ OF < 89!!!!!
Use the chart on: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IQ_classification
Here is a Nice Calculation to do:
📚📑💻Stats 301 Question in Degenalytics💻📑📚**:**
Lastly I asked anyone in the past few days to do a Stats 301 question with Degenalytics Context: To fucking determine the probability that an avg Joe with a $100+100 Bonus Bank-roll or $500 + 250B bank roll can actually pull off the $3000/$7500 grind in some number of N months betting with supposedly 2 full months of real sports (N-2) getting Obliterated by COVID-19. I want you to give me an analytical calculation or a simulation of your work and give me all the possible scenarios.
Then give the final verdict of if that number converges to 0.000% or 100.00% that the average Joe would succeed his false-hope mission for a successful rollover.
In other words think of it like this: If the average joe bets his entire bank roll 12 or more times (roll-over is not x10 because of bookie juice), what is the probability that he will still end up in the green? Also assign a tilt probability factor that the Average Joe would go on some emotional tilt spree to end up bust again? And make it even harder by eliminating 2-3 full months of real sports (N-2.5) and having to bet on Bovada's limited shitty ass lines and shitty live odds.
If you fucking want to eliminate the -2.5 months, then allow the average joe the freedom to bet on N months of e-sports [hahah] and see where that goes.
I had a bad experience betting on e-sports for 2 months and only end up -15-20U. I'm not saying that I lost because I suck at e-sports betting or I tailed the wrong people. The Bovada lines are super shitty and limited. Most of the time, on live esports, all you see are dashed out lines as if they fucking know what the rigged result is and prevent people from doing hedge bets or try to bet opposite spreads when they are winning to guarantee an insurance 1-1 with minimal damage incurred to their bank-roll. The live betting experience on e-sports on the Bovada platform is so bad that you are guaranteed to lose in the long run. Fucking hell Bodog/Bovada even offered me a $250 deposit on 100% bonus after the Rudy Gobert day in Mid March. They advertised the joys and wonders of getting rich betting off esports.
I was so tempted to deposit, however I kind of over-slept and missed out on the dead-line so they closed the bonus offer. Pretty good relief that I did not fuck-up my real credit card and bank account by falling for that scam again. It was an accidental Grace of God moment to fucking avoid that E-sports deposit marketing scam.
BONUS Questions:
A: Calculate the number of months needed and number of successful bets required for the conservative degen 1u bettor to grind out the roll-over playing
$2.00 tug of war with the bookie.
B: Calculate the odds that a professional capper who knows how to adjust unit sizes (1u-5u), do parlays once a while, will succeed the roll-over in some
N-2.5 months or add some e-sports to have fun to keep the N factor.
C.1: Calculate the conditional probabilities for the bettor succeeding in the mission if on the first few days of betting:
i) He loses bet 1 for about $20.
ii) Wins bet 1 for about $20 to earn $17.5.
iii) Goes on a 3 game losing streak
iv) 5 game losing streak
v) Positivity case: The guy got lucky and nearly doubled his bank roll on a decent run from day. Up +100U or $200. [I'm sure that out of bad discipline the average Joe would still go -200U in the long run with a pretty high probability.]
C.2: Determine the mathematical scheme on how the Bookies can use your first few losses to eventually put you in a 60+:40- (Greater than 60% locked in bonus, less than 40% of your deposited money). Bonus:Locked funds ratio.
The Jinx-King answer: It converges to zero [hahaha], but I really am interested in know what other scenarios math and stats people have come up. And your mathematical approaches and formulae used to generate possible scenarios and probabilities. But I think it is safe to say that for the average Joe,the answer is 0.00% success rate. Bodog/Bovada knows this exactly and refuses to put a hiatus on the roll-over deadline. Instead they keep it going so that people can try to wager on e-sports and lose their entire bank roll. They are only interested it getting 100% of your locked funds so that they can buy expensive cruises, yachts, beach mansions, resort packages, etc in Aruba or some other tropical place. Where you got millions of desperate Americans, Canadians in struggling economies with lost jobs and zero positive cash-flow. About 10% or so or perhaps even more deposit money into off-shore gambling websites hoping they can roll-over their bank-roll some ridiculous number of times and make a few bucks to put food on the table.
In fact, it makes matters worst being jobless, having zero cash flow and having locked funds in scamming bookies. If you are not good at casino or sports-betting games, you would have:
A: Lose your entire deposit for failing to grind it out properly.
B: Not grind it out on time on whatever dead-line the roll-over was.
C: Even if you did successfully grind that shit out using conservative 1u betting and play $2 tug of war with the bookie, you will end up just wasting your time grinding it out for hours and hours on end. It would have been better for you to fucking find a job at some farm helping out with harvesting crops or work in meat plants so that food does not go to waste. I bet you I can make more money than your $2 tug of war in one a day picking off cans and bottles off the streets in some exercise walking/running/biking + collection routine then selling it to the recycling center for $0.05-0.25 a unit. Trust me at my university, I spot maybe about 50-200 empty/partially driven cans and bottles left on desks, lecture halls, the floor, libraries, work areas, etc. Supposed that I harvested that shit, I would be making $5-$20 a day collecting it all and going to the recycling center once every week.
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⚖Conclusions⚖:
The fucking company knows this COVID-19 closure shit and want to use it to their advantage to continue to rob millions of their customers. Last week, I tried to call customer service, chat help, email, etc. and management has spoken to plead my case to delay the roll-over dead-line in a pro-rated time frame so that customers with locked balances can resume betting with their full balance when Game 1 of any Major League Sport actually returns. They give me the same bull-shit over and over saying they decline my request. For what reason?
  1. The terms and conditions written in fine print for accepting the bonus conversion challenge. "Rules are Rules."
  2. They were aware my deadline of June 22 at 19:23 ET was approaching soon. They knew I was on a mission to salvage my bank roll before they yank out the 60-75U trapped in bonus balances (i.e. Ghost money). By the end of it, I realize I made a foolish mistake. Most of my wins were just from bonus money and I was rewarded $0.00 on righteous wins on expired bonuses.
Therefore Bonus money only earns bonus money which put my entire bank-roll in a 80:20 ratio where the bookies control 80U in ghost money. By the end of the roll-over deadline, they get to yank out 80U of my balance at the deadline and left me with about $100 (20U) bank roll to regrind.
  1. They knew I was winning consistently making solid picks.
During my 110 hour marathon over the brutal grind of losing more than 70 hours of work, leisure and recreation; 35 hours of sleep; to a fucking impossible grind of trying to roll over some 60% of $7500 on sports I have little knowledge of capping (i.e. E-sports, Table Tennis, European football) after a few days of studying the game, I was picking up my stride to grind it to 91%. They fucking knew that if I had another day to grind, they would be coughing up +$600-800 of withdrawable balance to my account.
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Bio:😎📚🎓👨‍🎓
I am a Fucking PHD Candidate (2-6 months from graduating and not having to pay another round of BS tuition) who does a shitload of mathematics, statistics, simulations, mathematical physics, wrote scientific papers. I've won T.A. Awards, Government/Provincial/Institutional level scholarships, Conference presentations, with even Undergrad honors back in the day. DM me if you need a fucking CV to prove my fucking credentials.
Why am I able to write a lot of shit? Because my fucking brain operates on some max level Intel Xeon chip on overclock mode and I cannot do much to shut it down other than going to sleep. They only way is to write articles that I think might benefit the community.
I have a crazy interest in sports and Degen'ing. I love to fucking put action on sports games, be proud about making the correct calls on the outcome of games before it happens, and then boast to my circle of competitive friends about who's the fucking Boss. As tabboo as society think us degens are, I think this absolute BS. There is a pure enjoyment in watching sports and having action on it. It is nice to get paid beer money to cover a round for your buddies, or earn that rent money over a successful night of betting on shit you actually enjoy watching. Fuck I rather make $300 for one evening of enjoying sports rather than working a 9-5 dull job to try to afford rent/mortgage. If I can fucking pay off all my monthly expenses in 3 fucking successful nights of 3 hr sessions of sports matches, that would be ideal. I would take the lather over a 9-5 rat-race grind.
Overall I am "PRO" in the debate for local single sports betting bookies to be established in Canada. Get these fucking scamming off-shore books like bodog/Bovada who contribute only contribute "Bagel" to the Canadian Economy, but instead make it worst by scamming the masses of hard working or desperate people to leak out some sum of billions of dollars of national GDP. Probably the same applies to all American States, that people should not have to cough up their hard earned $$$$ to off-shore scamming bookies. I shall write an article about this later to justify my arguments later.
Ultimately I my goal is to obliterate or negate the influence of all the cons, scamming bookies, and false touts out there who are just interested in stealing people's $$$. To write out full studies on exposing their schemes in an objective lens.
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Calling me out: (Think I cannot track these pussy downvotes? I know you cowards 😂😜😎)
If you think I'm full of BS, then send me a personal DM to have a 1v1 argument the same way that Stephen A debates sports with Max Kellerman. You can downvote me or flame me with empty hate talk all you want on public threads. But don't be a fucky pussy by avoiding a debate with me. Trust me, I'm going to win and be the last one to state a real point that you will have no comeback for [haha]. Lastly, if you are open to discuss or debate with me about some issues, do some resarch/exploration, betting strategies, etc., I would love your collaboration in some projects I got going on.
Ultimately, I should help every honest worker strive towards Degen success or if not, just to purely enjoy putting action on sports games. If you are too full of yourself, then you are on your own, I bid thee adieu, and wish you all the best. However you will be absolutely declined to all services and counsel I work to provide to friends for free.
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Social Media📺🎬
Some extra Resource to how I got to this point in my mission.
Here it is for starters:
June 23, 2020: The Impossible Pursuit Reddit/sportsbook/Brag and Bitch (Tuesday)
June 24, 2020: Doubling Bank roll and rewarded Bagel: Reddit/sportsbook/Brag and Bitch (Wednesday)
June 24, 2020: How can you win 5 in a row and lose it all simultaneously? Reddit/sportsbook/What is your most impressive win?
Full Twiiter: https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5
All my media: https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5/media
Discord: ????? To be solved.
Challenges: Got a few right in progress now and a couple of drafts I am working on.
The Jinxking Crusade (In progress): https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5/status/1275516258822131714?s=20
Turns out many people cannot withdraw anything out of Bovada/bodog due to some website glitches. Will try to recover a bankroll to attempt a withdrawal, however I am likely to have the same issues too. They will make some lame excuse to not give me a cheque. Definitely no point of pursuing anything in bovada/bodog if they refuse to give you withdrawables. The goal is to get their website off outta here. As well as get them out of advertisements. They definitely pulled off some "Get the fucking money and run scheme" and you will likely not see your money again. GG
The Jinxking Challenge (In progress): https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5/status/1275661929940467713?s=20
Want to expose a bad tout who over prices the service and has a mediocre record? Tail and fade to call their their BS or mediocre non profiting record out. Also good for finding legitimate winners too. This will be a mission to expose shitty touts on Twitter the way Penn & Teller exposes BS in the market.
submitted by jinxking0p5 to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Looking for a book that carries this bet

My brother and I have wanted to place this prop bet for a while even though the value has gone down as time goes on. But I’m wondering if anyone knows of a book that is carrying “will San Diego State finish the regular season undefeated?” I saw SBR has it but I’ve never used them and saw they have some bad reviews. If anyone knows of a book carrying this it’d be greatly appreciated!
submitted by Mattmills8 to sportsbook [link] [comments]

College football gambling explained by your friends over at /r/CFBVegas

As a longtime reader of this sub and creator of the /CFBVegas subreddit, I notice that lots of people here don't have a full understanding of common betting terms and concepts. I'd love to educate those of you who want to learn so I'll open it up with a quick guide.

Team Point Spread Moneyline O/U
Texas +13.5 +400 42.5
Oklahoma -13.5 -350 42.5
You'll see boxes like this on site like Bovada and now you'll see them on ESPN. This tells you everything about how Vegas views the game. Oklahoma has negative numbers in the point spread and moneyline boxes which lets you know that Vegas thinks Oklahoma is the favorite to win the game. Underdogs will always have positive numbers with a plus sign in the front. This will be our reference.
The Point Spread
Betting on the point spread means you're betting on the final score of the game, not necessarily the winner. It's possible to win by betting on the team that loses. There are two ways to look at a point spread bet. If you bet on Oklahoma (the favorite), you're betting that
  1. Oklahoma will win the game even if you took 13.5 points away from their final score OR
  2. Texas will lose the game even if they began the game with a 13.5 point lead
If you bet on Texas (the underdog), you're betting that
  1. Texas would win the game if you added 13.5 points to their final score OR
  2. Texas will win the game no matter what the final score
Moneyline
This is a straight up bet. If you bet on Oklahoma, you're betting on them winning the game. If you bet on Texas, you're betting on them winning the game. Do you see those large numbers listed in the moneyline column? That lets you know what you stand to win based on a $100 bet. Oklahoma is the favorite listed at -350 meaning you have to bet $350 in order to win $100. Texas is the underdog listed at +400 meaning you could win $400 with a $100 bet. Betting on the underdog is a higher risk but with a higher reward. You have to put up more money on the favorite to get a higher return which is why most people bet on the point spread due to odds closer to 100.
The same negative and positive number concept applies to the point spread. If Oklahoma's point spread bet had -110 next to it, that would mean you have to bet $110 to win $100. Much better reward than betting on the moneyline but riskier because it depends on the score rather than the outcome.
Remember that what you win is in addition to your original bet. If you bet $110 on Oklahoma -110 and the bet wins, you will get your $110 back AND get $100.
O/U
This relates to the final score of the game. With the O/U being 42.5, you'll get the option to bet on the final score adding up to either more or less than 42.5 points. Why is there a .5 if you can't score half of a point in football? It makes it exciting. Imagine betting the over and the final total is 42. That half point screwed you! Vegas always wins :)
Prop Bets
This concerns about events that may happen during the game. Common bets I've seen include whether or not a team scores 3 times in a row, how many turnovers for each team, passing yards for the starting quarterback, etc.
Parlay
This is a bet on multiple games. You can put down a little bit of money and come out with a ton. If you really think you know how the day is going to turn out then you could do a parlay rather than betting on individual games. Parlays allow you to use the winnings from one game to bet on another and then use those winnings to bet on another! What's the catch? All games have to win otherwise the parlay collapses and you lose. A parlay betting slip on point spreads could look like this
For you to win the bet, all 4 teams have to win with their respective point spread. The winnings of the Texas game would be used to bet on UCLA and those winnings would be used to bet on Michigan and so on. A $5 bet would get you $61 and a $100 bet would get you $1220.
Play It Safe
Gambling can be fun but it can also be dangerous. Lots of folks don't take it seriously and end up losing tons of money. What I do is keep it simple. Every year I put up $100 and that's it. If I blow it all on week 1 then I'm done for the year. Last year I did terrible and lost it all in week 3. Second year in a row that I haven't turned a profit but that's okay. If you have a gambling problem or know someone with a gambling problem please call 1-800-522-4700.
Good luck this year and I hope to see all of you at /CFBVegas
submitted by azwethinkweizm to CFB [link] [comments]

Books that allow you to parlay (virtually) anything

5dimes will let you parlay almost all of their menu, including allowing insanely-sized open parlays. BetOnline and Heritage do not.
Does Bovada? I played there before novelty props were a thing. Also, I miss the old login system with the numbers. I'm so old, my fucking login was only six digits! It had gotten up to 8, IIRC
I ask because I love to create huge open parlays for $100 or $200 and just fill them with nonsense. It's fun. But 5dimes is a bit too buttoned-down for my taste with the novelty props.
submitted by titosvodkasblows to sportsbook [link] [comments]

French Open Round Two

Round two thoughts after a great day of tennis today. Thought of the day : not allowing coaching visits in the women's matches is really making for some big blowups and comebacks. I like it and I think it's great for player development to have to problem solve on their own.


Djokovic Laaksonen : There’s not much to say here. Laaksonen was lucky enough to nab one of the weakest players in the draw with his lucky loser spot but his run ends here. While sporting some of the best fitness on tour (the dude looks like a cartoon without a shirt) Laaksonen is an ABC player who mostly relies on his opponents inconsistencies and his serving ability. Djokovic offers neither of these and this should be over in straight sets.
Caruso Simon : Munar was one of the best prospects along with FAA coming into Rome and Caruso was able to outlast him and to produce winners against a guy who plays defense with not exactly the tools but the attitude of Nadal. A very big win is often followed by a very big letdown but Simon has only racked up 4 wins this entire clay season and I expect Caruso to win at least one set, if not pressure him for the match.
Struff Albot : Unfortunately both of these guys are at the top of their games right now but Struff’s ceiling is a great deal higher. Struff’s repertoire this season has been impressive and most of Albot’s wins while impressive feel stolen if I’m being honest. I worry a bit that Struff will feel pressure to dictate for most of the match and may hit himself out of at least one set, but he should take care of business here against Albot and set up a nice clash against Borna Coric.
Coric Harris : I’ve said before that Coric has a habit of playing to his opponent’s level, but you can let me know the next time you see Coric going 5 sets with Rosol. Harris’ big serve and athleticism may make this appear competitive, but the errors will come and Coric probably has the easiest 2nd round of anyone here.
Fognini Delbonis : Delbonis has been played more consistently aggressive this clay season than I’ve seen him in the past, but Fognini has, since leaving South America, actually been making an effort on the court. This is one I would prefer to flip a coin than call, and if there were a way to wager on spectacular winners I would take the over.
Fritz Bautista Agut : RBA and Fritz both were expected to roll in their first rounds and both looked impressive. Fritz is actually having a better clay season than RBA, and scored a victory over him in Lyon. The problem with that victory was it was a 3 set victory, and the event the week before a major is largely about getting in extra matches and avoiding injury. Zverev didn’t get the memo and fatigue will likely shut down his French Open at some point, but RBA’s exit in 3 probably indicates this match will be tight and while I belive he will come through, it’s hard to spit in the face of recent matches and I’ll be skipping this one and expecting Fritz to win at least 1 set.
Lajovic Benchetrit : Benchetrit scored a nice first round victory over the hapless Cam Norrie, and it definitely cost a couple ppl some dollars as Norrie was a relatively low -150 before the match began. Lajovic beat a legitimate claycourt threat however in Thiago Monteiro, and did so in straight sets. I expect him to continue his boring path through the draw but as unfamiliar as I am with Benchetrit’s game, I would not put it past him to pressure Lajovic a great deal given the power on his forehand and the consistency he has on the backhand side. A great match to wait for the end of so that you can take Zverev against the winner.
Zverev Ymer : Bovada opened this at -600 and despite having gone to three sets in a match about two years ago this one is a puzzle for me. Zverev avoided his classic 5th set letdown against Milman but fucksake if you don’t expect him to beat that guy in 3. Milman is doing more with less consistently and while he is a fierce competitor, his backhand is simply not strong enough to be getting to a 5th with Zverev. The line being as low as it is and the match with Milman unfortunately suggests to me that Zverev is a bit fatigued from his run in Lyon, and as fatigue was his downfall in past majors, I will be watching this one closely. That being said, Ymer is a supreme physical talent with a big game not exactly suited for the clay. He’s going to give you errors, and against the style of hiding behind the baseline that Zverev has chosen, he shouldn’t be able to steal more than one set even is Z is exhausted. Slight update : an insider said Zverev is “going thru some shit right now / mentally unstable / don’t bet on him” well too late … and also complete speculation most likely, but I’ll be looking to hedge early if he becomes the last leg of the 1 parlay I took him in
Thiem Bublik : Another annoying match for Thiem. While the ideal opponent for Thiem is a guy with a smaller serve and a conservative game, it looks like he’ll be playing guys with legit offense throughout the tournament(Paul/Bublik/. Tommy Paul simply would have beaten a 3rd of the guys who advanced out of the first round, and while Bublik should not be able to have a realistic shot at winning here, he has a big serve and prefers to lose on his terms, so this should be a disorienting match that Thiem will of course get through, but won’t help his rhythm heading into the 3rd round.
Cuevas Edmund : What’s the reward for playing 5 sets of high level tennis against Chardy? The opportunity to play 5 more with Pablo Cuevas. While not as hyperaggressive as his French counterpart, Cuevas is ten times more physically able and while Edmund can dictate well with the forehand, Cuevas has the far superior backhand and mobility. Cuevas unfortunately has a tendency to go 3 sets way more often than he has to in matches he is in control of, and that kind of complacency will allow Edmund the chance to swing for the fences which he seems so far to not have a problem doing. I’ll be skipping this one for the unpredictability but will definitely be watching.
Verdasco Hoang : Verdasco had the perfect first round opponent. If you watched today’s match you got to see Evans helplessly slicing the ball back on the backhand side and Verdasco getting to do what he loves most which is stand still and hit forehands. While Evans looked to be frustrating him at times Verdasco is not going to hit himself out of a match; he tends to lose by being outworked and mostly misses when he’s being moved around the court as he tries to make his shots better rather than run back to center. Hoang scored a nice win over Dzumhur who showed signs of being a midget. One of the most skillful players to watch when he’s winning, Dzumhur looks the same as Schwartzman when he’s losing, just physically exerted to play at the level. This is likely the end of the road for Hoang, but given Verdasco’s habit of mental lapses and wearing his heart on his sleeve he will be hard pressed to win in straight sets.
Mannarino Monfils : Monfils is just incredible at tennis and it’s a shame he spends a great deal of his non-injured time giving up against guys he could compete with (see : anyone in the top five anytime he plays them). He beat Daniel today like we are all aware that he can. On the opposite side of the spectrum, it was nice to see Mannarino get a win after really a long stretch of losing the big points and making errors uncharacteristic of him. I love the smooth style he employs but it almost seems like when he lost his hair he lost his swagger and while that’s an abstract assumption you can look back to the time before Rafa’s plugs grew in and see him visibly self-conscious about it. I lost my hair last year and now I’m trash at Smash Bros. Anyway French matches have a tendency to have wild results and I’m excited for this one and Paire vs Herbert but Travaglia’s power today was enough to get past Mannarino and he really lost at the end due to impatience. Monfils won’t have that issue and his serve is big enough to get him enough free points whereas Mannarino’s level right now is the computer player you train against. Monfils in 3 or 4.
Khachanov Barrere : Barrere a heavy favorite against Ebden came through quite nicely and now his tournament is over. Khachanov and Pouille are on a collision course and I’d be lying if I said I know Barrere’s game well enough to say he has no shot, but Khachanov has insisted on many occasions that clay is his best surface and with his past results giving him a cushion where he isn’t concerned as much with ranking points, he should be able to swing free of pressure and clean this one up in 4.
Pouille Klizan : I saw a lot of angry twitter comments about Klizan while he was down 2-0 against Kukushkin but he managed to turn it around. While that’s impressive what I watched with Pouille against Bolelli was even better. Pouille was moving to the ball on every shot and returning most shots with more than they came across the net with. His forehand was shaping the ball well and his backhand was compact and solid keeping it very low across the center of the net. Couple that with well struck inside out backhands and the highly skilled Bolelli was simply not allowed into any of the three sets. I am always hesitant to say lefties are in trouble and Klizan’s game is not so dependent on his opponent when he goes for such brilliant winners but Pouille’s form is likely to carry over playing on home soil and being the fresher and better player of the two, and he should win here.
Thompson Karlovic : When I first looked at the draw for the Tallahassee Challenger I was excited to see this matchup. Fokina has experienced his first “you’re talented but i am going to ruin your day” occasion. Thompson has the same blind try-hard effort level and attitude as De Minaur and for guys who want to play a more skillful game this can be frustrating. Thompson should be able to grind out points without too much risk against Ivo’s backhand and so holding serve shouldn’t be a big issue. Getting a break from Ivo is easier said than done though, and a lot of these sets will be expected to get to a tiebreaker where, honestly, Thompson should again have the edge in holding serve despite likely having a great deal of his serves come back. I’d never advise betting on tiebreakers but Thompson is the pick here if you must.
Nishioka Del Potro : I love Del Potro and when he’s playing it’s like watching a volcano erupt in between winced smiles. The man walks around like he is always exhausted, and while I suspect he left the forest along with the other ents he just isn’t. After a brief injury recovery he seems back to almost top gear as evident from almost stealing his match with Novak in Madrid, and while Nishioka is adorable af I don’t expect Delpo to lose prior to his quarterfinal against Thiem and he should win here in 4 at worst.
Tsitsipas Dellien : Rough one for Dellien and for Tsitsipas. I don’t think Dellien has the weapons to beat Tsitsipas but that won’t stop this from taking for-fucking-ever. Dellien is a lightning fast defender and a natural on the clay, and Tsitsipas has solidified himself as a top player so it’s hard to bet against him but this may tire him out a bit and I’m already looking forward to his clash with Federer so that’s unfortunate. If Tsitsipas comes out focused and remains aggressive he should roll but if he is making errors Dellien will make this exciting.
Krajinovic Carballes Baena : Good solid start for Kraj getting past Tiafoe who has proven that while his decision making and ego are still a bit wild, he is a difficult opponent to overcome on any surface. RCB is one of the best at printing money in the South American clay tour year after year, but this is a step up from his first round. I don’t think Carballes will find it difficult playing himself into the match with Kraj who doesn’t exactly take the raquet out of your hand, but I think that once he is in it he will have difficulty finding the offense to put Kraj, who is a solid defender, away. This might go deep but Kraj should win and set up a nice clash with Tsitsipas.
Wawrinka Garin : I spoke to someone earlier about lines that scare me. Wawrinka has had a nice build in his comeback and this is a tournament he has won before. He has the bigger offense, and more experience. Bovada lists him at -200 though, and that’s enough to make me skip it. Garin is the opponent you don’t want to play when you’re looking for an easy day at the office. He doesn’t quit on a single point and his shot selection is the one that makes you work. Playing this guy on an outside court is just not what you want to do, and if Stan is able to beat him, it may be time to start considering him as a threat to go deep in this event.
Cilic Dimitrov : “What an easy draw for Cilic. He will beat him senseless.” Not what I expected to read this morning from someone with some professional tennis background, but it makes sense. Dimitrov managed to find himself in a third set with Tipsarevic whose best days are behind him, and now he enters a clash with Cilic who while he is scared of the future does seem to find his best tennis at majors. Cilic leads the h2h and while I would avoid betting on this one simply due to Dimitrov’s ability, when I reread that sentence I do find myself believing that Dimitrov’s best case scenario here is to rise to the occasion and make a match out of it. Cilic in 4.
Mahut Kohlschreiber : But I thought Cecchinato beat Mahut? What happened Mr Turtle? I’ll be honest, it sucks to suck. Opening with that loss meant that my day could be breakeven at best. I went 10-1 and was lucky to be even. Such is life when you’re backing heavy favorites. I love Mahut’s hairstyle, but I don’t think he wins consecutive matches. Cecchinato imploded and Kohl’s demeanor is not such that this will happen. Add the X factor here which is that Kohl is one of the best returners on tour, and Kohl should be able to finish what me and Cecch could not.
Mayer Schwartzman : Idk. Diego beat the far better player in Fucsovics and has been stepping up his level of late, but Mayer actually has the edge in h2h having beaten Diego in 3 on clay last year. I don’t expect this to be anything less than wildly good quality clay tennis, and if I had to touch anything I’d take Diego. The real surprise here is they’ve only played once, and while Mayer won in straights and may be a bit fresher, he’s had a relatively disappointing clay season notching wins over only Copil and Lajovic in recent weeks.
Berrettini Ruud : Berretini is a magnet for in form players and for me leaving letters out of his name. Ruud has fooled me before as I thought he’d be a major threat and didn’t have much of a 2018 at all. His stock is going up, but Berrettini’s is already there. His offense has seen him past some high quality players already this 2019, and I do expect Ruud to put up a hell of a fight, but Berretini should see him off.
Federer Otte : For 3 years I thought his name was Otto Otte and I apologize. Oscar is into the second round with a solid win over Jaziri. Federer shut down one of Italy’s best new claycourt talents in Sonego, and this should be more oneway traffic for a guy who simply looks like he’s playing another game than everyone else.
Nishikori Tsonga : I haven’t seen much full effort from Tsonga this clay season, and he will need it tomorrow against Nishikori. While Nishi’s serve can go away and Tsonga can take the raquet out of your hands, Nishi has shown time and time again that he can isolate players backhands. Given that I haven’t seen Tsonga’s top level since his comeback, I can’t really recommend believing it will show up here. He’ll try, and Nishi is famous for getting himself into 5th sets, but he should be able to outlast Tsonga in this one.
Popyrin Djere : Djere holds a clay title, has been winning the matches he’s supposed to all year, and now plays a relatively inexperienced player here after rolling ARV who is not a guy who goes down easy on the dirt. I was a little surprised at the line here of -400 for Djere (Bovada), but Popyrin does have an explosive game when he is on. I can’t say enough about Djere’s progress and fighting spirit here though, and I think he comes through here although given his grind it out style it may take more sets than I’m comfortable with. To put it more bluntly, there is nothing to suggest that Popyrin will win, so I can’t back the possibility.
De Minaur Carreno Busta : Normal circumstances I would say PCB tunes up De Minaur. One of the most consistent performers on tour and one of the best on the big points for years, PCB’s shoulder injury has led to a most bizarre comeback. From clutch comebacks to having break points against him every game of a set against Paire, to losing to Opelka on the dirt, PCB headed into the French looking like a non-issue. A straight set thump of Sousa lends itself to the idea that he may have been just getting some matches under his belt. PCB has brought his best tennis out and gone deep in majors he was not expected to many times, and De Minaur’s flat ball and lack of real power will hurt his ability to hurt PCB here if he’s not making errors. PCB at about -220 looks right, and I’ll be skipping this one but watching to see how PCB looks as vintage PCB’s defense is just the opponent to win that third round matchup against Paire/Herbert.
Paire Herbert : You won’t find two more unique players on tour and this one should be wildly entertaining. Paire has been on fire of late and making an effort which marks the first time he done this since ever. His fitness seems improved, his backhand is still one of the best offensive backhands on tour, and his serve coughs up double faults but also gets him a ton of opportunities to come to net and avoid getting his draggy forehand exposed. Herbert brings a similar style of serve and volley to the table and with both guys being able to hold serve fairly often this far, the only discernible difference is Herbert beating Medvedev which is a huge win. This is a coinflip as Paire has the bigger weapons and Herbert has the composure and skill to capitalize when Paire makes careless errors.
Londero Gasquet : Is the line still dropping? Gasquet opened at -180 and it’s been diving ever since. Londero’s straight set drubbing of Basilashvili is nothing short of shocking, but while he’s struggled to win a match on tour since his title, his play during that title run is the type that would lead you to believe he can finish off a recuperating Gasquet. My problem here is Gasquet’s health is a mystery, but if he’s not struggling he can hit the ball around all day and frustrate even the best players on tour (outside the top 5). I’d take Londero to win the 1st set and the match for equal units here, but I have a tough time believing Gasquet is such a big dog given Londero didn’t simply open as a favorite.
Pella Moutet : Moutet is a talented player and he’ll have the home crowd behind him. Pella is a lefty and the hardest working player you’ll see on the tour. While Pella lacks the offense to simply hit you off the court, he will grind your backhand into oblivion and his backhand tends to stick you in the corner where he’s able to get forehands back or simply keep hitting the same backhand. Because he’s not an offensive dynamo, Moutet could pull a set here but is unlikely to win the match.
Goffin Kecmanovic : So is Goffin finally healed? Kecmanovic is a grinder without big weapons and this suits Goffin’s game just fine as he’ll be able to move him around the court nicely. As long as Goffin’s serve doesn’t disappear at the end of sets this match is his to lose, and Kecmanovic is a warrior but 5 sets against Kudla isn’t likely to help his chances of outlasting one of the tour’s best baseliners.
Nadal Maden : If Nadal had a damage counter, it would be empty game over playboy. Unfortunately, the French Open isn’t a video game and Hanfmann took the L we all knew he would. Maden has a good serve and hits hard from the baseline, but this is more oneway traffic. I don’t expect to see Nadal tested until he plays Pella and if Pella goes out then he’ll have to wait for Tsitsipas/Fed.
To be fair, I did ok for first round but people’s response was a bit critical so I tried to include less direct gambling advice in this post, and the second round isn’t much different with the things I’m taking. Heavy favorites against moderately hopeless opponents. Guys I’m backing are Coric, Thiem, Delpo, Federer, Kohl, Pella, Djere, Pliskova. I have some smaller stuff backing Kozlova +1.5 sets, Hsieh ML, Struff ML and Siegemund +4.5 games but those are more speculative than anything else. Best of luck and if you have any question or disagree I’m happy to read and respond.
submitted by blurryturtle to tennis [link] [comments]

(FEB 29) 2-1 on Red Alerts Last Night & MAC CRUSHED ANOTHER CBB HUSH MONEY PLAY - (PENNSYLVANIA +8.5) + 3 NCAAB RED ALERT WAGER PICKS TONIGHT!

(FEB 29) 2-1 on Red Alerts Last Night & MAC CRUSHED ANOTHER CBB HUSH MONEY PLAY - (PENNSYLVANIA +8.5) + 3 NCAAB RED ALERT WAGER PICKS TONIGHT!
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(FEB 29) 2-1 on Red Alerts Last Night & MAC CRUSHED ANOTHER CBB HUSH MONEY PLAY - (PENNSYLVANIA +8.5) + 3 NCAAB RED ALERT WAGER PICKS TONIGHT! Red Alert Patreon Members now get The MAC'S personal wagers as a units per play system, betting the strongest information and games with odds that have very best optimal value/risk reward. The Mac will once again prove why they continuously acclaim him to be a National Treasure! Cracking them open and cleaning them out last night, MAC's Red Alerts go 2-1, Penn covered easily as a 8.5 underdog and our Red Alerts are just cash in the bank!
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submitted by TheMACSPicks to SportsReport [link] [comments]

bliponaship - Bowl Picks

Conference Championship Recap

Championship Weekend Picks went 2-3 for -2.69u
Season Total Picks: 93-71 for +37.4 units

Bowl Picks

Added Picks:
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submitted by bliponaship to CFBVegas [link] [comments]

Boxing: Teofimo Lopez - Richard Commey 2019-12-14

Recap:
I lost last week on Ruiz Jr so I'm going to eat my humble pie right up front. I really didn't think AJ had it in him to fight in that manner for 12 rounds. I have to begrudgingly give him my respect for a perfect game plan. Plus Ruiz should be ashamed of himself for being so unprofessional and coming in close to three bills on the scale.
Honestly, 2019 and my boxing wagers have not been good. I took too many flyers seeing value where it just wasn't there with boxing. Being competitive and taking a loss as a boxer is still a loss for us bettors. The one good long-shot I had I didn't even post on Reddit (Pascal ML + Omotoso by KO +8000. Bovada has since done away with parlaying props). So take my bets with a grain of salt and always do your own research before making a betting decision.
Lopez-Commey:
With all that said, time to take another flyer here to close out this putrid year of boxing betting. I like Lopez by KO. Most pundits and other boxing fanatics see this as a competitive fight with Commey being a live dog. If Lopez wins, it'll be by competitive decision. I have to respectfully disagree with that assessment.
Commey is a hard-nosed veteran who has more experience than the 22 year old Lopez. However, most of his fights took place in his native Ghana against non-world class opponents. When Commey stepped up and fought Denis Shafikov and Robert Easter Jr, he dropped split decisions to them. He was also hurt in the Robert Easter Jr fight and Easter Jr. has proven to not be a big puncher (he has 0 KO's in his past seven fights). Commey also stopped a shopworn Beltran in most recent fight, the best win of his career. But Commey was touched in spots and it took him 8 rounds to get rid of the veteran. Commey has a high KO % himself but I honestly don't see him being a one-punch KO type of fighter. He's more of a grinder, stopping his opponents on accumulation.
Also, there seems to be this talk of Commey having a granite chin but I'd say that is largely unproven at this point (evidenced by the Robert Easter Jr fight). And he'll most likely need an iron chin against Lopez, who has a lethal left hook. Lopez does have one punch KO power and he is very explosive, I don't think you can have porous defense and last the distance against him.
I understand the hate for Lopez. He is brash, he talks a lot of shit, and does backflips over knocked out opponents. People want to see him lose. But we are gambling here and we can't let emotions cloud our judgement. I know some people think he got exposed in his last fight but his opponent, Nakatani proved to be durable and awkward. Nakatani took the power shots well (which Commey might not) but his height also might have taken some of the sting off of Lopez's shots. Commey is neither tall nor awkward so it isn't something Teofimo is going to have to worry about. In other words, I don't think the Nakatani fight has much bearing on this fight.
For me, I see Commey as being too open and wild for Lopez. It's just not the type of fighter I think will give Lopez problems. A more classic boxer with height like a Luke Campbell I think would give Lopez absolute hell but that isn't Commey. Commey is at a talent-gap too wide here in terms of both speed and power. I think at some point Lopez is going to land a big shot and Commey is going to hit the canvas, probably for the count.
My Bets:
I want to preface this by saying I could be totally wrong here and Lopez wins a competitive decision. If that's the case, the three bets I'm laying out here are going to lose. So if you're thinking I don't know what I'm talking about, you can go with the crowd and take Lopez by decision at -115 or Commey at a juicy +230.
But for me I think Lopez is going to stop Commey anywhere from rounds 1-6. However, the under in this fight is 10.5 rounds at +170. I'm going to take that side as well. If Commey somehow stops Lopez before the halfway point of the 11th round or Commey makes it out of the sixth but gets stopped late, I'm still covered. If Lopez stops Commey before the seventh, I'll win on two sides of the bet.
1U Lopez wins round 1-3 (+2500)
1U Lopez wins round 4-6 (+1200)
3U U10.5 (+170)
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bliponaship - Week 4 / Hydra System Picks

Week 3 Recap

Week 3 Live Picks:
Week 3: 9-6 for +7.35u for picks
Hydra System Week 3:
5u - Parlay at -102 odds
Week 3 Hydra System went +5u
Adding together the +7.35u in picks and +5u from the Hydra System, we're at
Week 3 Total: +12.35u
Add in results from the first two weeks and we're at:
SEASON TOTAL PICKS: 20-10 with 3 pushes for +15.67u
SEASON TOTAL Hydra System: 1-1 for -1.25u
Great start on the season! 67% on picks so far and the Hydra System is digging itself out of a hole.
Fun facts: So far, my 2u plays are 9-2. My 1u are 11-8.

Week 4 Picks:

**Make sure you're following this post to get my added and live plays!
Added Plays:

Hydra System Week 4:

5u - ML Parlay for -102 odds.
BOL everyone!
If you are opening an account at an online Sportsbook, I suggest Bovada or Betonline.
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bliponaship - Week 5 / Hydra System Picks

Week 4 Recap

Added Plays:
Week 4 Picks went 8-7 for +10.24u
Hydra System Week 4:
5u - ML Parlay for -102 odds
Week 4 Hydra System went for -5.1u
Adding together the +10.24 picks and -5.1u Hydra System, we're at:
Week 4 Total: +5.14u
Add in results from the first 3 weeks:
SEASON TOTAL PICKS: 28-17 with 3 pushes for 20.81u
SEASON TOTAL Hydra System: 1-2 for -6.35u

Week 5 Picks:

Added Picks:

Hydra System Week 5:

5u - Parlay at -110 odds
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bliponaship - Week 8 / Hydra System Picks

Yikes. This weekend was brutal. Went 9-5 (Florida should've made it 10-4) but still ended up losing money. My locks are now 1-2 on the season and the Hydra System is looking particularly sad sitting at 2-4. I'm going to continue through the rest of the season with the Hydra System to make sure I test it through a full regular season, but it has not served us particularly well.
If you remove the locks and Hydra System from this year's picks so far, I would be 44-35 for +11.71u. I'm not the type of person to chase losses; slow and steady wins it. So here we go:

Week 7 Recap

Added Plays:
Week 7 Picks went 9-5 with 1 push for -6.5u
Hydra System Week 7:
5u parlay at -125 odds
Hydra System went for -6u
Adding together -6.5u from picks and -6u from Hydra, we're unfortunately at:
Week 6 Total = -12.5u
Add in results from the first 6 weeks:
SEASON TOTAL PICKS: 45-37 for -4.39
HYDRA SYSTEM TOTAL: 2-4 for -14.3u

Week 8 Picks

Added Plays:

Hydra System Week 8

5u - parlay at -115 odds
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blipsonaship - Conference Championship Picks

Week 14 Recap

Added Plays:
Week 14 Picks went 4-7 with 1 push for -4.85u
Season Total Picks: 91-68 for +40.09 units

Conference Championship Picks

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Wimbledon 2nd Round Writeup

Meant to work on this earlier but my friends love poison and poison’s a team game so I got a little intoxicated.

Djokovic Kudla : Kudla has resurrected his season and remained on tour by getting some points in the grass season. By far his best surface in the past, he had some upset potential were he anywhere else in the draw. Novak is unlikely to be tested until he plays FAA and he has 1 more tough match to get there against a quickly rising Moutet. Kudla plays hard but he is entirely too straightforward and doesn’t have a big enough serve to trouble Djokovic. Novak in 3.
Mayer Hurkacz : Mayer looked healthy enough in round 1 and skipping the entire grass season seems not to have held him back. This is an interesting matchup because Hurkacz is supposed to win. He’s got a slightly bigger serve, Mayer’s prime surface is supposed to be clay, and while Mayer has had some solid performances in the past two seasons Hurkacz is a player whose stock is rising. Mayer leads the H2H 2-0, however, and while Hurkacz was steady in his defeat of Lajovic Mayer possesses a similar game to Lajovic with the inclusion of more power off both wings, a larger reach, and a much much bigger serve. I would not be surprised if this contest included tiebreakers and in a match like that there’s not a very clear way to predict a winner despite that being the point of me writing this. Unfortunately I’m not here to write a pretty article I’m here to offer up the input I have on tennis. Somebody in 4.
Auger-Aliassime Moutet : Dimitrov played two perfect sets of tennis and had his chances in the third. The odd thing is despite Moutet stealing a third set in which he was twice down a break and really just hanging on by a thread, there was not reason for Dimitrov’s level to drop. Where his confidence issues ended up felling him against a rising star, FAA may have the answer. Although he’s young in his career he has put in a lot of hard yards on the challenger tour (it’s odd he hasn’t played Moutet yet as he mingles in the same district) and has experienced playing difficult opponents who make you earn every point. On the opposite side of the net Moutet is that player. FAA is listed at what I think is an inflated -575 on Bovada. I somewhat agree. He has served to better effect this grass season, his groundstrokes are of excellent quality, and while Dimitrov thinks he has to get to net and play spectacular tennis FAA is more about precision and good decisions. I think the odds ruin the value but I do expect FAA to arrive at the inevitable clash with Novak. Simply put Moutet has smaller weapons and a lower ceiling of his game than Felix. FAA in 4-5.
Humbert Granollers : Monfils is the Raonic of getting injured. Fixing to clean up Humbert in the appropriate amount of sets he encountered what only he can and ended up retiring. I’d love to say Humbert earned that one and he did play at a high level but it was more about Monfils delaying the inevitable. Speaking of the inevitable, where did Granollers come from. Sonego was having a good grass season and has emerged on tour as a threat at the 250 level. Granollers played lockdown tennis as he did in qualifying and Sonego was forced into errors and passes that he was unable to produce after a long week in Antalya. The math at work in this is Humbert’s ability to hit through Granollers' defenses vs Granollers ability to pressure the younger player into errors. Oddsmakers have declared this a pickem and while I agree, I lean towards Granollers taking the match as he is in slightly better form and Humbert has had a fairly complacent grass season. Humbert is a lefty and a great serve and that can’t be discounted, so I don’t think it will be easy for either player to run away with this. Granollers in 5.
Medvedev Popyrin : Popyrin hit right through a real fake test in PCB. He served at a decent clip, hit aggressively from the baseline, and played the big points a little better. While I’m a big fan of PCB, he’s not back to his prior form yet and his service games have been a huge liability. That’s where he differs with Medvedev. Medvedev is a pusher with a top 20 serve. It’s hard to make sense of that until you see the patience that he exhibits on a tennis court. His tight two sets with Lorenzi are really a byproduct of Lorenzi’s experience more than any struggle on Danil’s side. The issue with this match will be if Medvedev cannot break Popyrin’s serve he may be able to snag a set or two. That’s a big if, however, and I expect Medvedev to have the easier time holding serve. Medvedev in 4.
Chardy Goffin : Chardy has been a thorn in Goffin’s side in the past. He has a pure game and while Goffin is adept at shaping the ball around the court Chardy’s only real struggle is with pace. A pure striker with a great serve and a tennis IQ that makes me wonder what the actual fuck most of the coaches are doing with their players, Chardy isn’t a guy who will lose in straight sets. Goffin has been resurgent for the first time in over a year in this grass season, and while this is encouraging, he will have to work hard to win this match. I wouldn’t put a cent on Goffin at -300 and I don’t expect Chardy to magically be able to hit through his defenses when he lost to Norrie a week ago. Expect this one to go to Goffin in 5 if he plays well or Chardy in 4 if he doesn’t.
Verdasco Edmund : Both opened their grass season with a quick loss at the hands of a top 20 player. Both played their second grass event and notched two good wins before falling to an American in top form. Both advanced through the first round in 3 straight one break sets. If you’re sensing a trend in predictions it’s because the 2nd round presents a lot of matches that are very very tight. Edmund is playing on home soil and is in what is supposed to be the prime of his career. Verdasco has won their last two clashes (in 3 sets) and the big key I think for him is Edmund’s poor movement. While he takes tennis as serious as anyone Edmund has had a big problem with remaining in volleys once he’s moved out wide on the court. Verdasco is a primadonna quitter who swings for the fences. This one will come down to whose forehand implodes first. Verdasco in 5.
Karlovic Fabbiano : Nobody watched Karlovic’s match, but we all know what it included. The guy has the best serve the ATP will ever see. If he were not so immobile he would win half the tournaments. Everyone watched Fabbiano’s match, and stared at Zverev likely without noticing the excellent and legitimate talent that Thomas possesses. This is a match that I consider Fabbiano’s reward, and while it will be extremely difficult for him to break Karlovic he is playing at a level that will make Ivo’s stealing a break equally difficult. Fabbiano in 4 tiebreakers.
Anderson Tipsarevic : Finally something I can lean on. Anderson looked excellent against Herbert, who has more weapons and better agility than Tipsarevic. Anderson’s game during rallies bothers me not because anything is wrong with his ballstriking but because he has a very simple shot selection. I do feel that forcing your opponent to anticipate is a huge advantage in sport and Anderson has done a ton of work to become one of the best baseliners of all the bigmen but he forfeits variety with this. Tipsarevic should be able to pull some errors out of him but the issue will be getting into rallies. Anderson sports a top 5 serve and while he struggled with injury and confidence in the past, he has enough major results that he won’t panic or doubt himself. Anderson in 3.
Seppi Pella : Get some, Seppi. A good win for a good vet against an error prone Jarry sets up this clash against a guy who gives you 3 hours of error free tennis. Pella plays with margin and wants to outwork you. This will be a physical contest and given Seppi’s abbreviated service motion I think Pella will be able to work his way into his service games. On the opposite side Pella is probably on par with Schwartzman for fewest aces in the top 50 and this probably won’t be a straight set win for just that reason. Pella in 4.
Wawrinka Opelka : Grass isn’t Stan’s best surface. He’s been know to struggle and go deep with opponents in the past. Tennis isn’t Opelka’s best game. He seems like a great kid and he can serve aces and smoke some groundstrokes that’ll make you think he’s like a better version of Isner, but he’s not there yet. Wawrinka may serve smaller but given Opelka’s struggles returning Stan won’t have to do as much and won’t have to press as much to hold serve. Opelka can take the raquet out of anyone’s hand and get to a tiebreaker but I don’t see him winning more than one. Wawrinka in 4.
Haase Raonic : Haase wins a match! What scares me about this matchup is Raonic is made of feathery glass, and Haase has a big serve and excellent reach. What bothers me about backing him is he really appears to be falling victim to his age this season. Subpar results, complacency, and a win over a struggling Kovalik don’t lend themselves to thinking an upset is coming here nor the outstanding display of returning that it would require. Raonic in 3.
Khachanov Lopez : Is this match over already? Books opened this with Khachanov around a -160 favorite and it has just slowly sunk every day. Lopez has a) not beaten him ever at tennis b) only one way of beating him which is serve and volleying through 3 winning sets against a guy with excellent movement and reach. I know Lopez won a grass event. I know he has a vicious serve. I just don’t think people are considering the opportunity. At +110-+130 you’re basically trying to call an upset and getting not much value. The problem is in his title run he beat a few quality players in Simon, FAA, Fucsovics, Raonic but he played 3 sets with all of them. Raonic was at the event to warm up for Wimbledon he wins 0 250/500 level events. Khachanov would tune up Simon. Fucsovics lost a set to Novak so you know it’s not really his dominant surface. FAA is 18 years old. I’m not saying Lopez doesn’t have a chance here I’m just saying there’s no value predicting it. It will be hard for either player to break the other’s serve and it will likely come with a burst of errors. Another match where I’m expecting multiple tiebreakers. Khachanov in 5.
Darcis Bautista Agust : Darcis made quick work of Zverev. RBA makes quick work of everyone until someone from the top ten bets him in straight one break sets. Darcis is a slick player with good variety but RBA is an unblinking robot ball machine and he is unlikely to lose this match barring injury. RBA in 3.
Paire Kecmanovic : Paire’s first round win over Londero looked inevitable yet didn’t inspire confidence. Kecmanovic was doubted by oddsmakers in the first round likely based on fatigue after his title run in Turkey,a nd came through nicely. The surface here is Paires only saving grace. Kecmanovic is exactly the type of player that works hard enough to profit from the errors and lapses in concentration that Paire offers up. Another match that really I expect to go 5 sets. I’m aware that kind of prediction doesn’t help people make money but not every match is worth predicting. Kecmanovic in 5.
Cuevas Vesely : Cuevas! A win on grass is rare for the Uruguayan and his reward is a familiar opponent. Vesely was solid in his defeat of Zverev and while Cuevas is a brilliant athlete he is working with smaller weapons here. Vesely’s strength are his serve and groundstrokes and he should be able to remain on offense against Cuevas who really only redlines his offensive game once he’s lost the lead in a match. On a grass court it will likely be too late once he does. Vesely in 4.
Querrey Rublev : Rublev is scary. He is the kind of kid who uses capslock every time he angrily texts his parents from his room. When he gets to swinging his racquet he has proven time and time again his opponent doesn’t matter. I wish he actually were playing a different opponent as when he is in good form on tour he makes for some exciting matches despite behaving like an angry carrot that’s come to life. Querrey played just wonderful tennis against Thiem and that backs up his warmup event last week where he lost an inconsequential final. This section of the draw is wiiiiiiiiiide the fuck open and he is the most experienced player with the best serve. I don’t suspect fatigue will play a part yet, and that’s bad news for Rublev who can hit with the same power but doesn’t possess the same serve. Querrey in 4.
Millman Djere : Do you like extended baseline rallies on a grass court? Djere had a much harder test in the first round, and while Millman has had a good couple seasons and might be considered the more seasoned player Djere’s results have shown that he is a threat to anyone outside the top 20. Millman’s problem in this match will be that he wants to do exactly the same thing as Djere but Djere is the bigger hitter. Djere in 4-5.
Simon Sandgren : A nice win over a somewhat fatigued Uchiyama lands Sandgren in the second round. With a style and results that make it seem like he’s just a dude who kinda hangs around tennis events and enters when they let him, he now matches up against a guy whose results indicate that form is a major requirement for his success. Luckily, Simon has looked excellent and relaxed this grass season. I don’t expect Sandgren’s style will be able to hit through Simon’s defense and this will mean if Simon can hold serve, he rolls in this match. That is generally harder said than done given the lack of pace on his delivery, so Sandgren will be on the court for a long time with no real chance at winning. Simon in 5.
Fucsovics Fognini : Fognini managed to turn it up against Tiafoe and was rewarded with just an absolute fuckton of errors. Fucsovics and Novak played one of the matches of the day and it’s a shame more people did not catch it. This is a spot where I do consider the upset the most likely event. Fognini was not serving aces today, and Fucsovics is a solid striker and a brilliant defender. Fognini will have a difficult time remaining focused and has been known to force shots when he feels trapped in a rally. Fucsovics in 4.
Cilic Sousa : Sousa played great tennis against Jubb. Cilic is just not Jubb, however, and he had a good warmup against Mannarino who is the kind of grass opponent that will hit you one of every single kind of shot that exists. Cilic has struggled this season in early rounds but grass is one of his better surfaces and you have to give him credit for solid results in majors. Sousa will work hard but Cilic’s defense and confidence in this match will see him through. Cilic in 3.
Evans Basilashvili : Not sure what to expect in this one. On one hand Evans is in great form and it seems like a nice comeback story. On the other hand he has struggled with guys with power (Edmund Wawrinka). I’ll say the big factor here is Nikoloz going 5 lengthy sets with Ward. The hometown favorite acquitted himself well, but I expected Basilashvili to win in 4. After winning 8-6 in the fifth, there is no player who can say “i was the significantly better player” and that is the sort of level I believe is needed to dismiss Evans with his current form. One more W for the Brit. Evans in 4.
Berankis Tsonga :Tsonga is really profiting from this draw. Shapov, and I mean this in the meanest way possible, can break down his game and grind out a win against someone like Berankis any time he wants to. He has lost matches like this a number of times since his debut and it’s starting to get tedious. It’s one thing to try to develop a top gear that can compete with the top guys, but you have to win matches to get there and he just doesn’t. Tsonga will be perfectly happy though, as Shap has slumped against low level guys but always brings it against the 10-30 tier. Tsonga likely won’t be broken that often in this clash, but Berankis didn’t just get gifted the match against Shap and did play some solid tennis so he may earn a set. Tsonga in 4.
Kyrgios Nadal : This is what we came for. The worst part about it is having the great match in the hands of Kyrgios, who may just phone it in or fake an injury or bicker with the crowd. I’m tired of writing or thinking about this lazy fuck.
Nishikori Norrie : An equally frustrating match for the opposite reasons. Norrie has turned in some of the worst performances I’ve seen this year, yet the plucky moron keeps going out there and competing. He really should not have a chance in this match, but given Kei’s difficulty scoring easily on his serve, this will be a long one. Kei has the benefit of having played a lefty in the last round, and while he’ll lose crowd support in this one, a loss here will signify the beginning of his fade from contention at major events. Kei in 4.
Johnson De Minaur : Johnson sports the way bigger serve. The advantages end there. De Minaur plays about as hard as Nadal, hits with great length, and forfeits style for efficiency. This is the kind of match i’ve been watching Johnson lose for quite some time. The backhand is a liability against anyone willing to put in the footwork, the pedestrian run around the forehand strategy is not sustainable over the course of a match and the indecision that arises as one moves to that position out of habit causes errors. De Minaur in 5.
Struff Fritz : Woof. Both guys in top form. Fritz never blinked against Berdych who was rusty but played decent. Struff gave back a bunch of breaks against Albot but closed out each set nicely. One of these guys will be pumping their fist as if they always knew they were the better player at the end of each set, but it’ll be a choice few point that decide this one. Struff in 4 or Fritz in 5.
Kukushkin Isner : Kukushkin was the last leg of almost every parlay I placed on the first round and he never made me sweat at all. Isner stumbled a few times against Ruud but wasn’t really tested. This one is a match similar to the Ivo/Fabbiano match in that one guy has a WAY more dominant serve but both should be able to find their way to a tiebreaker. I do think Kukushkin’s lack of power may become a liability as Isner plays himself into form. Isner in an awkward 5.
Berretini Baghdatis : Berretini lost a set but cleaned up a solid Bedene nicely. Up next is Baghdatis who is at the Lorenzi level of stealing matches. The problem here is Berretini doesn’t give up unforced errors and the pressure he applies off the forehand wing is constant. I don’t believe Marcos has the physical prowess at this stage to really play defense here and I think this will be one way traffic and the retirement of just an incredible player. Berretini in 3 and Baghdatis in our hearts forevaaaaaaaa.
Koepfer Schwartzman : Koepfer looked exhausted halfway through the first set against Krajinovic but played some gutsy offensive baseline tennis to get through the match. Up next is the only guy in the draw Koepfer is taller than, and fortuitously a similar defensive test to Kraj. Koepfer is a slick lefty with good pace on his backhand and a deft use of the dropshot, and his only difficulty here will be fatigue. Given his recent title run you expect him to have something left for the second round, and given the appearance of fatigue followed by 3 straight sets against a solid defensive player like Kraj it may just be that that’s how he always looks. Koepfer in 4.
Pouille Barrere : Pouille Gasquet seemed like a close one but Pouille owned the H2H 4-0 in recent affairs and extended that easily. Up next is the qualifier from his hometown. Tbh I’m sleepy and I don’t see a clear way for Pouille to lose this one, but since they’re French I don’t think it’ll be straight sets. Pouille in 4.
Federer Clarke : Good win for Clarke. Federer in 3.
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bliponaship - Week 7 / Hydra System Picks

Week 6 Recap

Added Plays:
Week 6 Picks went 5-6 for +1.4u
Hydra System Week 6:
5u - Parlay at-139 odds
Hydra System went for -6.95u
Adding together +1.4u from picks and -6.95u from Hydra, we're at:
Week 6 Total = -5.55u
Add in results from the first 5 weeks:
SEASON TOTAL PICKS: 36-32 for +2.11u
HYDRA SYSTEM TOTAL: 2-3 for -8.30u

Week 7 Picks

Added Plays:

Hydra System Week 7:

5u parlay at -125 odds
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If you are opening an account at an online Sportsbook, I suggest Bovada or Betonline.
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bliponaship - Week 9 / Hydra System Picks

I posted this on this sub a couple days ago, but for some reason I had problems with folks being unable to see it. I'm reposting, so if any of the lines have changed, feel free to ask in the comments!
I'm marking the Hydra System as a failure and discontinuing the current setup. Instead I will begin experimenting with less teams/higher juice to see if it can be tweaked into a more successful system. I'll be turning my bankroll exclusively to picks and not investing in the Hydra System. Input is welcomed! I won't be adding together the weekly picks with the Hydra System any longer to determine how a week went.
Picks are back to positive and this part of the season is where I typically do best. In the last two weeks, picks have gone 17-9 for a 65% win rate!

Week 8 Recap

Added Plays:
Week 8 picks went 8-4 for +4.5u
Hydra System Week 8
5u - parlay at -115 odds
Hydra System went for -5.75u
Adding together +4.5u from the picks and -5.75u from Hydra, we're at
Week 8 Total = -1.25u
Add in results from the past 7 weeks and we're at:
SEASON TOTAL PICKS: 53-41 for +0.11u
HYDRA SYSTEM TOTAL: 2-5 for -20.05u (eeeeeeesh)

Week 9 Picks

Add Plays:

Hydra System V2 Week 9

5u - Parlay for -150 odds
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If you are opening an account at an online Sportsbook, I suggest Bovada or BetOnline.
For Bovada, feel free to use my link to get a bonus: https://www.bovada.lv/welcome/P2A59D31C/join?extcmpid=rafcopy
For BetOnline, feel free to use this link for a bonus: https://betonline.ag/?RAF=YINTIRD5&product=SPO
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bliponaship - Week 10 Picks

Everything that could go wrong did go wrong. This week was brutal. The Hydra System is done. I don't want to make any public picks with it anymore out of fear of someone tailing. I have a lock this week, and it's not to try and catch up. This game legitimately measures up to the parameters of a lock play! Enjoy

Week 9 Recap

Added Plays:
Week 9 picks went 5-10 for -6.32u
Hydra System V2 Week 9
5u - Parlay for -150 odds
Hydra System fails again for -7.5u.
Season Total Picks: 58-51 for -6.21

Week 10 Picks

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If you are opening an account at an online Sportsbook, I suggest Bovada or BetOnline.
For Bovada, feel free to use my link to get a bonus: https://www.bovada.lv/welcome/P2A59D31C/join?extcmpid=rafcopy
For BetOnline, feel free to use this link for a bonus: https://betonline.ag/?RAF=YINTIRD5&product=SPO
submitted by bliponaship to CFBVegas [link] [comments]

Anybody "addicted" to parlays?

I don't really bet single games. Winning ~$50 on a $50 bet doesn't really excite me. But I'm not going to risk $1000 to win a ~$1000. So I end up playing these parlays for the bigger payoff. I know, the math doesn't work out. But I love the thrill of the big payout. Sometimes I'll do just a 2 team (like Stanford Texas, fucking Texas!) but more often than not I love the crazy 4-5 team parlays. Only recently started sports betting when I discovered Bitcoins. Previously I was just table card gambling in Vegas a few times a year. Actually made a little money. Unfortunately lost it all playing blackjack on Bovada. Starting to think BJ on Bovada is rigged!
submitted by always_bet_black to sportsbook [link] [comments]

bliponaship - Week 6 / Hydra System Picks

What a nightmare. Week 5 will now forever be known as Bloody Saturday for me. There were so many things that went wrong. New Mexico State played horribly, but thanks to a fumble by Fresno State on their own 30 in the 2H, they get the TD they need to eventually cover the spread as Fresno State scores 24 first half points and 6 second half points. We also had New Mexico score a garbage TD with 40 seconds left in the game to cover against Liberty. Arizona State and Cal ended 1/2 point above 40.5. In fact, the line went up right after I posted it to 41, eventually getting up to 43.5. I think most people won on that bet and got a better number, but sheeeeesh. How about Arizona who announced right before the game that their Heisman-caliber QB wouldn't be playing? Clemson decided they were going to take an early bye week. And an Arkansas team that lost to San Jose State and almost lost to an FCS team nearly beat TAMU?
And North Texas... I understand I'm going to get a lot of flak for this one since it was my lock, and rightfully so. I was really excited about this game because I got the number at -3 at my local book and -6 online. The number steamed up to UNT -9 at kickoff! Looking at the box score is so confusing. UNT gained 100 more yards than Houston, had more first downs, had 230 more pass yards, had the ball for longer and had zero turnovers. Houston's QB that sucked last year came in and threw 16/20! I am shocked. I watched the entire game and still have no clue how this happened. Every analyst and rating system had UNT easily winning this game. Awful beat.
This is part of the reason I don't charge for my picks. If a weird weekend comes along, you don't have to worry about paying for picks, just lost juice. This was a tough one and a hard regression to the mean, but we press onward.

Week 5 Recap:

Added Picks:
Week 5 picks went 3-9 with 2 pushes for a shocking -20.10u
Hydra System Week 5:
5u - Parlay at -110 odds
Week 5 Hydra System went for +5u
Adding together the -20.10u from the picks and +5u from Hydra, we're at:
Week 5 Total = -15.1u
Add in results from the first 4 weeks:
SEASON TOTAL PICKS: 31-26 with 5 pushes for +0.71u
HYDRA SYSTEM TOTAL: 2-2 for -1.35u
Let's make some back this week.

Week 6 Picks:

Hydra System Week 6:

5u - Parlay at-139 odds
---
If you are opening an account at an online Sportsbook, I suggest Bovada or Betonline.
For Bovada, feel free to use my link to get a bonus: https://www.bovada.lv/welcome/P2A59D31C/join?extcmpid=rafcopy
For BetOnline, feel free to use this link for a bonus: https://betonline.ag/?RAF=YINTIRD5&product=SPO
submitted by bliponaship to CFBVegas [link] [comments]

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GAMBLING PROLEMS... BETTING GAMES ON BOVADA

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