I have a keen interest in sports predictions and betting. I have used a downloaded and updated dataset of club teams and their outcome attributes. I have a train dataset with team names and their betting numbers. Based on these, Random tree classifier (This part is ML) will predict goal outcomes. Home and Away goals.They are then interpreted in Excel and it helps me place betting strategies. It's 60% reliable(Even predicted correct scores for 4 matches. That's insane!) Example Output: Round Number Date Location HomeTeam AwayTeam FTHG\P FTAG_P FTHG_Int_P FTAG_Int_P FTHG_Actual FTAG_Actual) 1 14/09/2020 20:00 Amex Stadium Brighton Chelsea 0.93 2.7 1 3 1 3 3 26/09/2020 15:00 Selhurst Park Crystal Palace Everton 1.35 2.1 1 2 1 2 3 28/09/2020 20:00 Anfield Liverpool Arsenal 2.93 1.05 3 1 3 1 4 3/10/2020 15:00 Emirates Stadium Arsenal Sheffield United 2.26 0.725 2 1 2 1 Predicted values are denoted "_P" That's what this code does. It can go do so much more but it's on the drawing board for now. I am all open for collaboration. If you find somebody interested/open a do-able project on GitHub, I am up for it! Please find code and sample dataset at: https://github.com/cardchase/Soccer-Betting Is there a better classifiemethod out there? I took this way as it was the most explained on Kaggle and the most simple for me to build and test. Let me know how it goes: https://github.com/cardchase/ p.s. I have yet to place actual bets as I have just completed the code and I back tested. I dunno how much money it'll make. A coffee would be nice :) If you are looking at datasets which are used, they can be found here: Test: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1IpktJXpzkr_jQn43XpHZeCDzhdeVpi9o/view?usp=sharing and Train: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Xi3CJcXiwQS_3ggRAgK5dFyjtOO2oYyS/view?usp=sharing Edit: Updated training data from xlsm to xlsx Edit: Thank you for your words of encouragement. Its warming to know there are people who want to do this as well! Edit: Verbose mumbling: I actually built this with a business problem at hand. I like to bet and I like to win. To win, you dont need to beat the bookie. You have to get your selections right. The more right you get, the more money you have. The purpose is to enter as many competitions as our training data has and get out with a 70% win. So the data/information any gambler has before he/she gets into a bet is the teams playing/the involved parties. Now, the boundary condition would be the betting odds offerred but to know the rest of the features, you would need to have a knowledge bank of players, teams, stadiums, time of the year, etc. But, what if I wont have/am not interested to know? Hence, the boundary condition is just the team names and betting odds. Now, the training dataset has all the above required information. It has the team names (Cleaning this dataset was super hard but I got there, the scores (We also have other minute details like throws, half time scores, yellow cards, etc. but for now, we are concentrating on full time scores and the odds. I would expect the random tree (even if its averages, its not a bad place to start; I mean, if the classifier would predict 4 actual scores (Winning 1:17, 1:9.5, 1:21, 1:7.5 then, thats break-even for that class of bets for the season already!) to work pretty fine in this scenario. The way I would actually go about is to have h2h score and last 3 matches winning momentum but, I dont know how)) The bets we/I usually place are winningteam/draw and over 1.5 goals or under 3.5 goals. Within this boundary, the predictions fall nicely. Lets see how much I get right this week's EPL. I have placed a few I should know soon. Though, I admit I suck at coding and at 35 years, I am just rolling with it. If i get stuck at a place, I take a long time to get out lol. Peace HB
The NBA is the parent company to the WNBA, since there is no WNBAdiscussion I figured this would be the place to speak openly and honestly about the WNBA from a 15 year NBA fan's perspective. For those unfamiliar with the origins of the WNBA the league was founded 24 years ago by the NBA under commissioner David Stern. The goal of this league was to get more women interested in basketball and to give Top-level American talent a place to play on the home front. Good intentions and for the first 5 years of the WNBA's existence things were looking up, the league expanded from 8 teams in 1996 to 16 teams to start the 2002 season. Average attendance started at roughly 9000 per game in 1996, spiked to 11k per game in 1998 and declined back to 9k per game in 2002. Therein lies the first issue with the WNBA, after 2002 the per game attendance numbers started a slow decline, so much so that by time 2010 rolled around many teams were relocated to smaller arenas or simply folded. There are now 12 teams in the WNBA and only 3 of the founding teams are in the same city. (4 founding teams folded and 1 was relocated 3 times) The viewership and per-game attendance numbers were always low, people blame lack of marketing but if we're being honest almost every single person knows the WNBA exists. I believe that the main is reason is the general sports watching market is simply uninterested in professional women's basketball. Think about it, how many people do you know who watch the WNBA? Who buy the jerseys? or even go to WNBA games? (Pre-corona) I'm willing to bet that the number is quite low. The majority of sports consumers are male and the WNBA was created to lure females into sport consumption. On paper the idea makes sense right? 50% of people don't really watch sports and most are female, why not try to and acquire that market? The problem is in reality women consume so many other types of media that the WNBA simply does not compare to. Social Media sites, YouTube and even the Kardashians have higher rates of engagement and support than the WNBA ever will. Adam Silver even revealed during this interview that they are frustrated that women are not showing up to the games. He also revealed that the WNBA is supported predominantly by older men. The next problem is the biggest issue with the WNBA, there is a huge lack of entertainment value when you actually watch a game. Don't get me wrong, these women are phenomenal players and are fundamentally very very good. The problem is that biology is a bit of a motherfucker. Women cannot compare to men in terms of strength, acceleration or verticality. Think about a player like Gary Harris. His vertical leaping ability and hangtime in this play is absurd. Gary Harris is a solid player but he is no superstar player like Lisa Leslie or Candace Parker or even Brittany Griner. Yet those are the only 3 players in the WNBA to have dunked ever and none of them could jump like Harris can. When you watch an NBA game there is always a chance to see a moment that captures our imaginations or even exceed them. Think about this play JR Smith of all people did something that looked incredible. The entire stadium got on its feet, you probably have chills from watching that play. That is the power of the NBA. The WNBA suffers from a lack of athleticism compared to the NBA and unless we make serious strides in genetic engineering that gap will simply never be closed. Now we have to talk about money, a touchy subject because the WNBA does not share it's financial data with the public. Adam Silver also admitted that the WNBA receives 12 million a year from the NBA as a stipend yet the league itself still loses 20 million a year on average since its founding. Now all this would be scary enough to look at if I was a member of the WNBPA but the strange thing is all the coverage on the financials of the league are about the wage-gap between the two leagues. Granted initially the WNBPA said they just wanted the same percentage of BRI (basketball related income) as the men's league (men's league gets 50%). However if your league takes in roughly 60 million a year in income and loses 20 million a year, why would you be entitled to the same percentage? Your labor is not generating profits even close to what a healthy professional league should be. Even if you triple the WNBA salary cap does it make the league more watchable? As per my earlier arguments I believe the answer is no. Most WNBA players actually play overseas during the offseason in Eastern Europe and earn up to triple their WNBA income. Which begs the question why even come back? Just play in Europe make your money and rest during the regular WNBA season. If you were a software engineer in Ohio and you got offered triple your salary to work in Poland or Turkey how seriously would you consider that job offer? This isn't a manifesto trying to take down women's sports. I enjoy women's tennis, I loved watching the US women's soccer team run rampant over the world cup and even female golfers are starting to gain popularity which is fantastic! This is specifically about how the WNBA is a league on the decline and it has failed to establish a foothold in the US. The market isn't there, the product is subpar, the business is bad and the players make significantly more money elsewhere. I am curious to hear what you guys have to say about the WNBA, do you think it has a future? If so what can the league do to generate interest ?
Any other American fans pissed about NBC's shift to make the Premiere League a sort of pay-per-view program? I was just looking at the upcoming TV schedule for the matches this weekend, and with the exception of Arsenal-West Ham and Leicester-Burnley, everything is on Peacock. It's infuriating. I specifically subscribed to YouTubeTV years ago because at the time it was the only streaming service where I could watch Premiere League and Philly sports. Well as some of you may know, YouTubeTV has recently jacked up the price for additional shitty content most subscribers didn't want. And now, NBC is throwing salt in the wound by moving PL matches to Peacock. Some Yanks here may remember the days when you could only watch the Premiere League if you paid $15/month on top of your outlandishly priced cable subscription for the shitty Fox Soccer coverage of the Premiere League. It was fantastic when NBC took over and started airing games on channels already part of your cable package. I wouldn't be surprised if NBC's acquisition of the rights helped grow the fan base in the States. But, as the greedy cunts that they are, they couldn't help themselves to make it so that the fan base they grew and nurtured has to pay extra for it. I'd say I'm done being a fan, but like most other idiots, I'm paying Peacock's monthly fee. With Bale returning to Spurs under Mou, my future bet on Everton finishing in the top 6, and my goddamn shitty fantasy team, I have to watch. But it doesn't mean I'm happy goddamn it!
As a long-time contributor to this sub, I know we love nothing more than discussing our degeneracy. If nothing else, hearing such stories makes you realise there are other people out there who have lived similar experiences to you. Stories of epic failure provide a sense of comfort. Stories of unexpected triumphs provide a feeling of hope. The following bets - and the circumstances surrounding each - were not necessarily story-worthy. However, there were a number of intricate details which I felt were worth highlighting. Aside from the statistical rollercoaster than one experiences throughout a game (i.e. going from "how can this lose?" to "this bet is over"), there are other factors which can have significant ramifications for one's betting endeavours. This is where the factor of timing comes into play. How often have you bet on something purely due to the fact that the game was starting shortly? It could either be a straight wager on the game. Or, you might have decided to add the short-priced "lock" to boost your odds. How often has this then come back to bite you? Or conversely, this random event - where your betting urge coincided with the scheduled timing of this event taking place - results in a recuperation of losses from previous games that you "studied" prior to placing your losing wagers? Without further ado, this is my story. It is but a speck in the ocean that is my entire betting career. But it was a Sunday night full of swings, sweats and... well I won't spoil the ending. As you read this, I want you to keep the headline in mind. Specifically, the wordstiming, luckanddegeneracy. It's early on a Sunday evening in Melbourne, Australia. Approximately 6PM to be exact. We are currently under the world's strictest COVID lockdown. We have an 8PM curfew, and I was keen to get in a 1 hour walk before returning home to make dinner. Now typically - as I had already walked my dog several hours earlier - I would not go for another on my own. But for some reason, I just had an urge to get some fresh air. Here is the first element in play: timing. At 6:10PM, an AFL (Australian Football) was scheduled to begin. As I begin my walk, I inevitably flick through my preferred bookmaker's iPhone app and this game catches my eye. Part of me says "don't bet it". The other part of me curb-stomps that voice in my head and says "don't be a pussy". Now on another note, I placed a daily deposit limit of $3000 on my account. To some, that is insanely big. I generally bet $1000 or so, and so this stops me from stupidly chasing the day's losses. Here is where another element peaks it's head: luck. I had deposited $1750 that day. Had I reached my limit, the following events would only have existed in a parallel universe. But as luck would have it, I had $1250 to play with. So I said 'fuck it' and made the deposit. It's about 6:05PM now and I don't have much time. I sift through the markets on offer and decide it's best to play a Same Game Multi (parlaying multiple events from the same game). With not much time left to make a decision, I quickly check the weather forecast in Gold Coast (where this game is taking place) and note that there is meant to be rain in the second half. (Spoiler: there was no rain in the second half). As this sport is played outdoors, this would favour the unders. So I come up with a bet that looks like this:
First quarter OVER 23.5
First half OVER 48.5
Full match UNDER 125.5
West Coast +34.5 handicap
Margin: either team by 1-39
Bontempelli 15+ disposals
Macrae 20+ disposals
ODDS: 4.10 A bet of $1250 would pay $5125. I was ready to place the bet. The problem? The match was only seconds from beginning. The time stamp on when the bet was accepted: 18:09:55 I made it by 5 measly seconds. Ok, so game begins rather uneventfully. Now it's worth noting for those who aren't familiar with AFL that you can score by 1's and 6's. It's late in the first quarter and the total is sitting at 22 points. Needing over 23.5, I'm in desperate need of a goal. The whole bet is about to come crashing down without it. With only seconds remaining a player marks the ball from a score-able position. The siren sounds. Now in AFL, if a mark is taken before the siren ("buzzer"), the player may take their kick. As luck would have it, this legend kicks it right through the middle of the goal posts, and the first quarter score ends on 28. We live on! Second quarter ends, and the combined total is 52 points. Again, we survive the over 48.5 by less than a full goal! (But this one cleared with a handful of minutes left to play, so there was no sweat involved). I'l wrap up the remainder of the game fairly quickly, as it is rather uneventful. The final score is 47-49, so the total under 125.5 hits easily, the +34.5 and margin 1-39 hit comfortably, and both players rack up well over their required disposals. Fantastic. My account hits $5125. By this stage, some would be satisfied. I wasn't. I was out for blood. The smart move would have been to withdraw, say, $4000. Play with the remaining $1125 (house money), and lock in a profit. But what's the fun in that? I scroll through the upcoming events and see that there is a Chinese Super League (soccer) match starting in a few hours. This isn't the first example of degeneracy in this story, but it's probably the biggest. So what do I do? Another Same Game Multi of course. And how much do I bet on it? $5125 of course. The bet:
Beijing Guoan: win or draw
Total corners: OVER 7.5
Total goals: OVER 1.5
BOTH teams to score in BOTH halves: No
ODDS: 1.95 A bet of $5125 would pay $9993.75 Here's where the rollercoaster of events begins. 5 minutes in, we have our first corner. 13 minutes in, we have our second. Corners are looking good. Fast forward to half time and Beijing are leading 2-0.
BOTH teams to score in BOTH halves: No = WINNER
Total goals: OVER 1.5 = WINNER
Beijing or draw = TBD, but looking good!
Corners OVER 7.5 = ONLY 2 FUCKING CORNERS IN THE FIRST HALF!
Remember, they had already accumulated 2 corners 13 minutes into the match. 32 minutes without a single corner! The live odds for over 7.5 were now over 3.00, and I was losing hope. The second half begins and approximately 10 minutes passes without a corner. I'm fucked. The next 15 minutes feels like God (aka Bob from NBA Daily Discussion) had blessed me. A flurry of corners results in an 8th corner before the 70th minute mark! What looked like a total sweat, turned into the easiest of victories. Or so I thought... The final leg: Beijing or draw - who by the way, were 1.50 favourites to win the match - were still up 2-0. One book had the opposing team at 81.00 odds to win from here. But you guys can guess what happened next. Wuhan goal! I'm still leading 2-1. My brain: "it's all good man, you still have a 1 goal buffer". Barely a few minutes later... Wuhan goal! It's now 2-2. My brain: "it's cool, you just need a draw, you're still likely to win this". Including the 6 minutes of added time, I have to sit through approximately 20 excruciating minutes of soccer, with just under $10k on the line. Luckily, Beijing did 75% of the attacking. Wuhan did have a few minor chances, but nothing that made the heart sink. The referee blew the full-time whistle, and I slowly unclenched my ass cheeks. I waited to see my account balance, just to make sure all was kosher. (You know, we've all been there, when we thought we bet on a certain team, but because their names are all Chinese, you actually bet on the wrong Beijing or something like that). My balance appeared at $9,993.75. It was time to call it a night. I reflected on the past 6 or so hours that I had just been through, and the 3 things that kept popping up in my mind again were timing, luck and degeneracy. P.S. Sorry to all the Djokovic and Heat backers. Brutal. Especially Djokovic. I'd say that's a once-in-a-career circumstance, but I think that would be understating how unlikely it is that the best player in the world get's DQ'd because he inadvertently hit a ball into an official's neck out of frustration.
Previous episodes:Flamengo, Vasco, Fluminense, Grêmio, Botafogo, Atlético Mineiro, Internacional, Corinthians, Santos, Palmeiras, Cruzeiro In this series I will present each of the 12 Brazilian teams that together compose the "Big 12". My point is to make them more knowledgeable to you, since each one of these teams have their share of the Brazil national team success and of Brazilian club football accomplishments as a whole. I'll try to be as smooth, efficient and non-boring as I can. If the feedback is positive, I'll keep bringing more to this series. So ok, let's do this! Method: I'll present the teams in a chronological order, from the oldest foundation (Flamengo-1895) to the latest one (São Paulo-1930). The order will be: Flamengo, Vasco, Fluminense, Grêmio, Botafogo, Atlético Mineiro, Internacional, Corinthians, Santos, Palmeiras, Cruzeiro, São Paulo. How many of these have you heard of? Extra clubs: Due to a high number of requests, I'll also present 3 teams who don't belong to the Big12, but are also considered big clubs in Brazil: Bahia, Athletico Paranaense and Coritiba. Welcome to the club! Geographical reference: Before we start, I'd like to ask something very simple from you. I want you to keep in mind that these 12 teams are spread in 4 different States in Brazil. The club's State name is written below, next to the club's name. It has a direct link to Google Maps, so that you can check it out to make this experience more accurate.
Major achievements: 3 Intercontinental/Club World Cup (1992, 1993, 2005), 3 Copa Libertadores (1992, 1993, 2005), 6 Brazilian Leagues (1977, 1986, 1991, 2006, 2007, 2008), 1 Supercopa Libertadores (1993)
State League titles: 21 (Against Corinthians' 30, Palmeiras' 23, Santos' 22)
PLAY AND LISTEN TO SÃO PAULO'S ANTHEM WHILE READING - Click here São Paulo FC, the biggest Brazilian club São Paulo seems to be the only team in Brazil that has all the major ingredients that make a team, the biggest: lots of international and domestic titles, big fanbase, big stadium, big idols and historical teams. Clubs like Santos or Flamengo come close, but lack one or other ingredient - that's why São Paulo, the only 3x Club World champion and the youngest of the Big12, is considered the biggest club in Brazil!
Not only São Paulo leads the title rank, but also the runner-up rank, as you can see below:
In the entire South America, São Paulo is only behind Boca Juniors and Independiente in international trophies:
South American club
Intercontinental/Club World Cup
However, you have to consider that in Argentina there are only 5-7 big clubs (Boca, River, Independiente, San Lorenzo, Racing, Estudiantes, Vélez), while in Brazil there are at least 12, making things more difficult to São Paulo. São Paulo is also the only Brazilian club to win 3x the Intercontinental/Club World Cup, which is considered their biggest feat:
Intercontinental Cup 1992
São Paulo 2-1 Barcelona
Raí (2x), Stoichkov
Intercontinental Cup 1993
São Paulo 3-2 Milan
Palhinha, Cerezo, Müller, Massaro, Papin
Club World Cup 2005
São Paulo 1-0 Liverpool
The beginnings São Paulo was founded in 1930, and accepted people from any origin, social class or ethnicity since their early days. They won their first trophy in 1931, a State League title, led by Friedenreich - who scored 103 goals in 5 years at the club. After a few fusions with other clubs, the team would begin to really shine in the 1940s. The 1940s: five State League titles Due to Brazil's huge size and weak infrastructure, there wasn't a National League until 1959 - until then and even afterwards, the State Leagues were the main tournaments. In the 1940s, São Paulo won 5 of them. At this time, the club also received the nickname "The Dearest Team", because they dared to bring and show a huge São Paulo State Flag in the inauguration of the Pacaembu stadium, in front of 70.000 spectators, including the hated Brazilian dictator Getúlio Vargas. Leonidas da Silva The first big idol of the club was Leonidas, present in the 5 State League titles in the 1940s. The Black Diamond had played in two World Cups (1934, 1938) and joined the club in 1942. He scored 140 goals in 212 matches, and retired from football in this same club, in 1950. It was in this decade that São Paulo gained the respect of the best teams of the city, Palmeiras and Corinthians, who already had 10 State League titles on their account. In 1943, during a State League draw, a Corinthians' director said that the draw was unnecessary: he flipped a coin and said that if it falls head Palmeiras will be champions, if it falls tail it will be Corinthians. After being questioned about São Paulo, he replied, laughing: "if the coin stands, it will be São Paulo, if it stops in the air, it will be Portuguesa". São Paulo were the champions, and had a huge coin standing on their car during the celebrations at night. The Steamroller dominated the decade, got the respect of Corinthians and Palmeiras and were now considered a rival. These 3 teams received the nickname of Iron Trio from the media. 1950s-1970: construction of Morumbi, the biggest private stadium in the world The club destined all their money in the 1950s to the construction of their stadium Morumbi, which would be the biggest private stadium in the world. Without funds to build a strong team, they only won two State Leagues in this period (1953, 1957), with the legendary Hungarian coach Béla Guttmann commanding them in the 1957 title, with 1950 World Cup Golden Ball winner Zizinho on their side. While São Paulo built their stadium, a young kid named Pelé arrived at Santos, and gave no chance to them, or to the Iron Trio teams in the 1960s. 1970s: back in the game In this decade, São Paulo won their first Brazilian League title in 1977, and also 3 State Leagues (1970, 1971, 1975), besides one Copa Libertadores runner-up (1974), and one Brazilian League runner-up (1973). Curiously enough, the 1977 São Paulo wasn't a great team, and nobody bet on them to become Brazilian champions. They beat Atlético Mineiro in the final, on the penalties, after two 0-0 ties. São Paulo missed their first two penalties, but managed to overcome Atlético, who sent three shots away. No São Paulo player was elected to the League's Best XI. The São Paulo players who stood out in this decade were: Gérson, World Cup champion in 1970, Pedro Rocha, elected to the League's Best XI in 1973, Mirandinha, elected to the League's Best XI in 1973 and called to the 1974 World Cup, Waldir Peres, excellent goalkeeper who won the League Golden Ball in 1975 and played in 3 World Cups (1974, 1978, 1982), Chicão, centre-back who played 312 matches for São Paulo in the 1970s and got called to the 1978 World Cup, and Serginho Chulapa, the club's greatest topscorer, who scored 242 goals in 399 matches for São Paulo between 1973-1982, and played in the 1982 World Cup as a starter, after Careca's injury. 1980s: State dominance In the 1980s, São Paulo watched their rivals Palmeiras and Santos struggle, as they took home 5 State League titles (1980, 1981, 1985, 1987, 1989). But it was in the 1986 Brazilian League that São Paulo proved their worth. Led by Careca, they ended the 1st stage undefeated (7W-3D). On the second stage, they kept the good shape, with only 2 defeats in 16 matches, and with 3 wins scoring 5 goals or more. On the knock-out stage, São Paulo first met Inter de Limeira in the ro16, the current São Paulo State League champions. São Paulo lost the 1st leg 1-2, but gave a 3-0 back in the return leg, with Careca scoring once on each match. In the quarter-finals, they would play Fluminense, and lost the 1st leg 0-1. In the 2nd leg, Careca opened the score at '67 with this crazy goal, and Müller scored the second ten minutes later. In the semi-finals, they would face América, a traditional team from Rio de Janeiro, that was big in the old days. América's goalkeeper worked hard, but at '80, Careca finally scored with this shot. In the return leg, Careca scored this genius lob goal from inside the box. The team held América's pressure, and left with a 1-1 tie and the spot in the big final. The big final would be against Guarani. In the 1st leg at the Morumbi, the topscorers of the tournament, Evair and Careca, scored once each, and the match ended 1-1. The 2nd leg was one of the craziest Brazilian League finals. It ended 1-1 with two own goals, and went to extratime. São Paulo did 2-1 with Pita at '91, but Guarani tied at '97 and scored the 3-2 at '110, with this goal of guts. São Paulo needed a goal in 10 minutes, and at '119, Careca scored to tie the match 3-3 and become the league topscorer. On the penalties, Careca missed São Paulo's first shot, but so did Guarani. São Paulo would score all their 4 other penalties, while Guarani's João Paulo sent it away, so that São Paulo were crowned Brazilian League champions for the 2nd time. São Paulo had 6 players elected to the League's Best XI: Gilmar, Dario Pereyra, Nelsinho, Bernardo, Pita, and the Golden Ball and league topscorer with 25 goals, Careca. Also in 1986, São Paulo had 5 players called to the 1986 World Cup, notably the starters Müller and Careca, as well as Oscar, Falcão and Silas. They lost on the penalties to France in the quarter-finals. 1991-1994: Telê Santana Era, the team that dominated the world Johan Cruyff said, after his Barcelona lost to São Paulo in the 1992 Intercontinental Cup: "if you are to be run over, better be by a Ferrari". This São Paulo superteam dominated Brazil, South America and the World in these years. They won 2 Intercontinental Cups, 2 Copa Libertadores, 1 Brazilian League, 1 State League, 2 Recopa, 1 Supercopa Libertadores and 1 Copa Conmebol, not to mention the Tereza Herrera (4-1 against Barcelona) and the Ramón de Carranza (4-0 against Real Madrid) in Spain. Everything started in 1990, with the arrival of Telê Santana, the celebrated Brazil 1982 coach. With him, São Paulo finished 2nd in the Brazilian League, losing to their rival Corinthians on the final. In 1991, São Paulo began the season in great fashion, winning the Brazilian League by June, with a 67% rate. They led the first stage, then knocked Atlético Mineiro out in the semis after two ties (1-1, 0-0), before beating Bragantino in the final (1-0 and 0-0), with this goal from Tilico on the 1st leg. São Paulo were crowned Brazilian League champions for the 3rd time. Two São Paulo players were elected to the League Best XI: Ricardo Rocha and Leonardo. On December 1991, São Paulo had their revenge against Corinthians in the State League final: in front of 102.000 spectators at the Morumbi, Raí scored a hat-trick and ended the conversation. 3-0 to São Paulo on the first leg, and a 0-0 tie in the second leg to secure the State League title against Corinthians. 1992: the first Copa Libertadores and Club World titles In this season, São Paulo won the Copa Libertadores on the first semester, then the Intercontinental Cup and the State League titles on the second. At the beginning, the coach Telê used the reserves in the Copa Libertadores, considering it a way too disloyal competition. But after a 0-3 defeat and with the pressure from the board to take it seriously, he changed his strategy and qualified from the group stage on the 2nd place, with 3W-2D-1L, behind Criciúma. São Paulo passed through Nacional (Uruguay) in the ro16 without much problems and 2 wins (1-0, 2-0). In the quarter-finals, São Paulo suffered, but beat Criciúma 1-0 at home with this goal from Macedo. In the 2nd leg, Criciúma opened the score at '10, but Palhinha tied with this great goal at '55, qualifying his team to the semis. In the semis against Barcelona (Ecuador), São Paulo smashed them 3-0 at home, with another great goal from Palhinha. In the 2nd leg in Ecuador, São Paulo goalkeeper Zetti performed this huge mistake as Barcelona scored 2-0 at '87, but it was too late and São Paulo qualified to the final. In the big final against Newell's Old Boys (Argentina), São Paulo lost the 1st leg in Argentina, 0-1. At home, with a crowd of 105.000 at the Morumbi, Raí scored 1-0 from a penalty at '65. The match ended and went to the penalties. The Argentines hit the post on their first shot, but São Paulo lost their third one. The Argentines missed their 4th shot, while Cafu scored. Zetti saved Newell's 5th shot - and São Paulo were crowned South American champions for the first time. Palhinha was the Copa Libertadores topscorer with 7 goals. This title qualified São Paulo to the Intercontinental Cup, to play against European champions Barcelona in December. São Paulo 2-1 Barcelona: the 1992 Intercontinental Cup title In August, São Paulo had already beaten Barça 4-1 for the Tereza Herrera Trophy (5mn video), with Müller scoring this nice goal. Four months later, they would meet in Tokyo for the Intercontinental Cup trophy. Bulgarian Stoichkov opened the score at '12 with this amazing goal. São Paulo, led by Raí, quickly dominated the match and tied at '27: Müller did a great Cruyffesque turn and assisted Raí to score. Minutes later, Müller almost scored this great lob goal. In the second half, Barcelona almost scored again, but Ronaldão saved on the line. At '78, Raí scored from this no-chance free-kick on the GK side to overcome the score to 2-1 in São Paulo's favor. Not much else was done, the match ended, and São Paulo were crowned for the first time Club World champions. Raí, who scored a brace, was elected Man of the Match.
São Paulo - 2
1 - Barcelona
6. Ronaldo Luís
6. Bakero (Goikoetxea)
8. Toninho Cerezo (Dinho)
11. Beigiristain (Nadal)
One week after the title, on the 20th December, São Paulo played the 2nd leg of the São Paulo State League final, against rivals Palmeiras. São Paulo had won the 1st leg 4-2, with a hat-trick by Raí and this great goal by Cafu. In the 2nd and final leg, in front of 111.000 spectators, São Paulo won 2-1, with goals by Müller and Cerezo, to secure their 18th State League title and tie with Palmeiras in the State League title ranking. São Paulo played 84 matches in 1992, with 45W-21D-18L (66% rate) and 133 goals scored. Raí was the topscorer with 31 goals, folllowed by Palhinha (25) and Müller (24). 1993: International Quadruple Crown, São Paulo dominates the World again São Paulo started the season playing the São Paulo State League. However, the 1990s was a Golden Era of Brazilian football, and the State League was dominated by a rich Palmeiras sponsored by Parmalat, with Roberto Carlos, César Sampaio, Edílson, Zinho and Edmundo - so that São Paulo finished 3rd. São Paulo were focused in the 1993 Copa Libertadores, which they entered in the ro16, as returning champions. At first they had a 1992 rematch against Newell's Old Boys (Argentina): they lost 0-2 in Argentina, but stomped them 4-0 at home in the 2nd leg (3mn29 video). In the quarter-finals, they met Flamengo. Palhinha scored this beautiful lob goal at the Maracanã, in the 1st leg that ended 1-1. At home, Dinho almost scored from this crazy free-kick, but Müller didn't forgive and scored this nice goal at '24. Right-back Vitor saved São Paulo with the goal empty moments later, and then he assisted Cafu to score the second and qualifying goal at '68. In the semis, São Paulo sent Cerro Porteño (Paraguay) home, after a 1-0 victory at home and a 0-0 tie away. In the 2nd leg, after a corner kick by Arce, Ronaldo Luís saved São Paulo on the goal line. In the big final, São Paulo destroyed Universidad Católica (Chile). In the 1st leg at home, they were leading 5-0 at '70, before the Chileans scored their goal of honor at '85 - goals and highlights here (7mn13 video). In the 2nd leg in Chile, São Paulo lost 0-2, and were crowned back-to-back Copa Libertadores champions. Raí left to French club PSG after the Libertadores title. In this first span (1987-93) at the club, he scored 111 goals in 306 matches, as a midfielder. He would come back later, from 1998 until 2000. In September, São Paulo won their 2nd international trophy of the year - the Recopa Sudamericana, against Cruzeiro (0-0, 0-0, p.k. 4-2). In November, São Paulo won their 3rd international trophy of the year - the Supercopa Libertadores, which gathered all the 16 Libertadores champions in history. After beating Independiente (Argentina) (2-0, 1-1), Grêmio (2-2, 1-0), Atlético Nacional (Colombia) (1-0, 1-2, p.k. 5-4) and Flamengo (2-2, 2-2, p.k. 5-3) in the final, they only needed a win in the Intercontinental Cup against the AC Milan of Fabio Capello to claim the uniqueInternational Quadruple Crown. São Paulo 3-2 Milan: the 1993 Intercontinental Cup back-to-back title The early 1990s Milan was legendary - Gli Invicibili (The Invincibles) that won the 1991/92 Serie A unbeaten, reaching a 58-match run with no defeats. Baresi, Costacurta and Maldini, one of the strongest defences in football history, also Desailly and Donadoni in midfield, plus Massaro and Jean-Pierre Papin in attack. This Milan had 5 starters of the 1994 WC final against Brazil - São Paulo had none, actually only 5 bench players (Zetti, Ronaldão, Leonardo, Müller, and Cafu - who was subbed in during the final). This 1993/94 Milan only conceded 25 goals in 54 matches, but São Paulo somehow found a way to score 3 against them. Milan started the match better, with this crazy shot from Massaro. But it was São Paulo who opened the score at '19 with Palhinha, after this cross from Cafu. Massaro tied at the beginning of the 2nd half, but Cerezo scored the second at '59 after a cross from Leonardo. Papin tied it 2-2 at '81 from a header. But 7 minutes later at '88, this funny back/knee goal happened, scored by Müller. São Paulo held the pressure, the match endedand the World belong to São Paulo once again, for the second year in a row. Toninho Cerezo was elected Man of the Match. With this title, São Paulo joined Pelé's Santos record of winning two back-to-back Copa Libertadores and Club World titles - they are the only South American teams to have done so until today, and probably, forever.
São Paulo - 3
2 - Milan
6. André Luiz
5. Albertini (Tassotti)
11. Toninho Cerezo
9. Palhinha (Juninho Paulista)
9. Raducioiu (Orlando)
With this title, São Paulo won the International Quadruple Crown, and is the only team in the South American history to have achieved it.
1993 Copa Libertadores
Universidad Católica (Chile)
1993 Recopa Sudamericana
1993 Supercopa Libertadores
1993 Intercontinental Cup
In 1993, São Paulo played 98 matches, with 46W-30D-22L (62% rate), scoring 163 goals. Palhinha and Raí were the topscorers with 22 goals each, followed by Cafu (20) and Müller (15).
Brazil NT Caps
World Cup att.
4 (1994, 1998, 2002, 2006)
2 (1978, 1980)
1990-91, 93-94, 2001
2 (1994, 1998)
1984-88, 90-94, 1996
3 (1986, 1990, 1994)
1994-95: the end of the Telê Era Before Telê started to get sick in 1995, he had time to collect the 1994 Recopa Sudamericana and the 1994 Copa Conmebol - the latter with the reserve team, called Little Express, with upcoming talents such as Rogério Ceni, Juninho Paulista, and Denílson, who even beat the traditional Peñarol (Uruguay) 6-1 in the final - the largest score in a South American final ever. He also reached the 1994 Copa Libertadores final, but lost it on the penalties to Vélez Sarsfield (Argentina) (0-1, 1-0, p.k. 3-5). Telê passed away in 2006, at the age of 74, and is considered the best Brazilian coach in history. He inspired a series of world class coaches, namely Marcelo Bielsa, Arrigo Sachi and Pep Guardiola - notably with his Brazil 1982 and São Paulo 90-94 sides. 1996-2004: Rebuilding times, the club thatalmostwins In this period, São Paulo was known for building good teams and revealing great players, but without collecting trophies. They only won 2 State Leagues (1998, 2000), 1 Rio-São Paulo Tournament (2001), and an irrelevant Copa Master da Conmebol (1996). On the other hand, they finished 2nd in three State Leagues (1996, 1997, 2003), two Rio-São Paulo (1998, 2002), 1 Copa dos Campeões (2001), 1 Supercopa Libertadores (1997) and one traumatic Copa do Brasil (2000), losing the title in the last 10 minutes. They also reached 1 Copa Libertadores semi-final (2004), 1 Copa Sudamericana semi-final (2003) and finished 3rd in two Brazilian Leagues (2003, 2004). Meanwhile, their rivals Corinthians and Palmeiras were collecting trophy after trophy, while Santos started to reemerge to big titles. The highlights of this period were the return of Raí in 1998 and his performance (7mn video) against Corinthians in the State League final, the performances of Rogério Ceni, Belletti, França, Dodô, Marcelinho Paraíba and Luís Fabiano, and the revelations of Denílson, Julio Baptista and Kaká. Three of them even represented São Paulo at the 2002 World Cup title (Rogério Ceni, Belletti, Kaká), as well as Edmilson and Denilson, who lived this period at the club and were now in Europe. But the trophies weren't coming. Kaká, notably, appeared in 2001 in the Rio-São Paulo Tournament final. He entered the match at 0-1, and scored two goals in two minutes, thus taking the title home. He performed well in the 2001 Brazilian League, but was knocked out in the quarter-finals. After the 2002 World Cup title in June, Kaká returned to São Paulo and tore the Brazilian League apart with Luis Fabiano, winning the Golden Ball Award. However, the title didn't come again, as they lost in the quarter-finals (1-3, 1-2) to the uprising young talents of Santos' Diego and Robinho. The São Paulo supporters were extremely angry at Kaká, calling him a popcorn maker (meaning choker in Brazil), and demanded his exit, notably after another defeat in the 2003 State League final (2-3, 2-3) to rivals Corinthians. Kaká then left the club in 2003 to join Milan. He played 131 matches and scored 48 goals for São Paulo, in this period (2001-2003).
Brazil NT Caps
World Cup att.
2 (2002, 2006)
2 (1998, 2002)
3 (2002, 2006, 2010)
2005, Libertadores, Club World Cup and Rogério Ceni - the myth, the legend, the 1 Before 2005, Rogério Ceni was considered just a good goalkeeper - after that, he became a club idol and started de facto his legacy. Ceni arrived at the club in 1990, at the age of 17. He got promoted to Telê's main team in 1992, after the death of third goalkeeper Alexandre, and collected some important titles under him, as reserve. He started playing in 1997, for both São Paulo and Brazil NT - his known antipathy however didn't help him for Brazil, specially with so many talents around with more empathy, like Taffarel and Marcos, or with more skills, like Dida. He developed himself as a world class free-kick taker - and that, somehow, worked against him when people analyzed his goalkeeping abilities. Rogério Ceni is the goalkeeper with the most goals scored in history, with 131 goals in 1237 matches for São Paulo - 69 from penalties, 61 from free-kicks. In 2005, he notably scored 21 goals in 75 matches, being the team's topscorer of the season. The team started the 2005 season with some good players from 2004: Cicinho, Fabão, Lugano, Josué, Danilo, Tardelli and Grafite. With the arrival of Júnior, Mineiro, Amoroso and Luizão, the team was ready to dominate South America and the world for the third time. They started winning the São Paulo State League, led by the coach Émerson Leão, main responsible for building the team, since his arrival on September 2004. He would then leave to Japan, being subbed by Paulo Autuori. In the Copa Libertadores group stage, São Paulo ended 1st, with 3W at home and 3D away, against The Strongest (Bolivia) (3-3, 3-0), Universidad de Chile (Chile) (4-2, 1-1) and Quilmes (Argentina) (2-2, 3-1). Highlights to this free-kick goal by Rogério Ceni against Universidad. In the ro16, São Paulo met their city rivals Palmeiras, and won the 1st leg 1-0 away with this great goal by Cicinho. In the 2nd leg at home, Rogério Ceni and Cicinho scored at '81 and '89 to beat Palmeiras 2-0. In the quarter-finals, Tigres (Mexico) lost 0-4 to São Paulo in the 1st leg - Ceni opened the score with this great free-kick and also scored the third from another free-kick. In Mexico, they lost 1-2, but qualified anyway. River Plate (Argentina) would be their adversary in the semis. At home, São Paulo hit the post twice, and won by 2-0, with goals from Danilo at '76 and Rogério Ceni, from this penalty at '89. In Argentina, São Paulo won 3-2, without much problems. In the big final, São Paulo met Athletico Paranaense, and tied 1-1 in the 1st leg (away), with this funny own goal when they were losing 0-1. In the 2nd leg at home, São Paulo won 4-0: first with Amoroso at '16. Athletico then missed a penalty, and São Paulo scored the 2nd at '52 with Fabão. Luizão scored the 3rd and Tardelli the 4th. São Paulo were for the 3rd time, the Copa Libertadores champions, and the first Brazilian team to achieve it. Ceni and Luizão were the topscorers of the team, with 5 goals each. This title qualified them to the 2005 Club World Cup. 2005 Club World Cup: São Paulo 1-0 Liverpool, 3x Club World champions In Japan for their 3rd time, São Paulo first beat Al-Ittihad (Saudi Arabia) 3-2 in the semis, so they could face European champions Liverpool in the final. The English team hadn't conceded a goal in 10 matches, and went full-attack on São Paulo, who defended themselves. But at '27, Mineiro scored the only goal of the match after a chipping from Aloisio. São Paulo defended as they could, with great help from Ceni, who performed the save of the year after Gerrard's free-kick at '51. The match ended at '93, and São Paulo were crowned Club World champions for the third time. Ceni was elected Man of the Match and Golden Ball of the Cup.
São Paulo - 1
0 - Liverpool
1. Rogério Ceni
12. Pepe Reina
2. Warnock (Riise)
22. Sissoko (Pongolle)
14. Xabi Alonso
14. Aloísio (Grafite)
10. Luis Garcia
19. Morientes (Crouch)
2006-08: the BrazilianSovereign In 2006, São Paulo reached once again the Copa Libertadores final, but lost to Internacional (1-2, 2-2). The team then focused on the Brazilian League, which they would win three consecutive times. Led by coach Muricy Ramalho, they would play defensive football (3-5-2) and show great regularity - though always getting eliminated in knock-out competitions. With these 3 titles, they reached a total of 6 league titles in their history. In these 3 league titles, São Paulo played 114 matches, with 66 wins and only 16 defeats (overall rate of 67%), conceding only 87 goals. 11 São Paulo players were elected to the League's Best XI in this period: Ceni, Ilsinho, Fabão, Mineiro and Aloísio (2006), Ceni, Breno, Richarlyson, Hernanes (2007), Ceni, André Dias, Miranda, Hernanes and Borges (2008). Highlights to Hernanes, great São Paulo revelation, who later shone in Europe.
Brazil NT Caps
World Cup att.
2 (2010, 2014)
2005-10, 2017, 2019-
2009-today The São Paulo that brought fear to their adversaries disappeared in this period, collecting only one Copa Sudamericana in 2012. They managed however to reach two Copa Libertadores semi-finals (2010, 2016), two Copa do Brasil semi-finals (2012, 2015) and one 2nd place in the Brazilian League (2014). They also revealed Casemiro and Lucas Moura, among others. São Paulo is one of the 3 Brazilian clubs to never be relegated. To this day, São Paulo has the 3rd largest fanbase in Brazil, with 17 million supporters, and a stadium attendance average of 27.400, as of 2019. If you have any questions about Brazilian football, feel free to join us at futebol, where you'll be very welcomed!
Remember what I said? "If you wait until the last minute, it only takes a minute." I somehow, by the grace of God, and Power of Grayskull, managed to accomplish all my required tasks yesterday. I have, diagnosed, Obsessive Compulsive Disorder (OCD). I am very methodical and meticulous about certain things, life-or-death work being one of them. Over the years I have learned it's not necessarily important to give one hundred percent to everything. My very first First Sergeant was a great man. He was a former Delta Operator, raging prick, but a great man nonetheless. He would say, "OP. I want eighty-fucking-percent from you each day. Eighty-fucking-percent. However, when I ask for a hundred, you'd better fucking give it to me." I gave "work" eighty-fucking-percent yesterday, and managed to baseball bat the square peg through the round hole at the very last minute. It was a solid B- and a job well done. During my course of hyper-procrastination, I had a thought provoking comment about parenting. A fellow Fuckery inquired about the "How to Adult" chapter in the Parenting Handbook. The comment took be back in time approximately sixteen years. My wife had just pissed on a magical stick and told me the most unexpected news ever, Janet Jackson had a nipple-slip during the Super Bowl halftime performance, but I had missed it because of a deployment. She also told me she was pregnant. Well fuck my tits sideways, because I was not ready to hear that. Sloppy was going to be a father. Want to be a surgeon? Go to fucking school. Want to be a lawyer? Go to fucking school. Want to be teacher and cultivate future leaders? Go to fucking school. Want to be a parent? Pull out one fucking second too late and presto, you just hit the nine month "cook" button on vaginal-microwave. Sadly, there is no educational requirement. You don't have to have rich or poor. You can own a home or be homeless. There is absolutely zero prerequisites needed to preform, arguably, the most important and demanding job on earth; fucking parenthood. Again, I wait to the last minute, but my wife, for some reason, really felt the need to prepare for this thing called "parenthood". She immediately went to Barnes and Noble, got some overpriced fucking latte drink, and scoured the aisles for the best "Mixed Cocktails from Under the Sink: The Parents Guide on how to Not Kill Your Child." The wife was about halfway through the book when I finally picked it up. "Maybe I should at least read chapter one!" I do what I normal do when I purchase a new book, and immediately flip through for pictures. Then I research to the author to see what qualifies him or her their specific field. My apologies, I forget who the author was, but that's not important. What is important is this particular author had zero fucking crib-midgets or baby-cave convicts. What the fuck? Who the fuck are you to educate in a field you have zero experience with? Imagine the look on the pilots face when we finds me in the cockpit of my next international flight. "No worries friend. I got this shit. I slept at a Holiday Inn last night, and I honestly feel I am more than qualified to turn on the Christmas-light-cockpit and see if this stallion is airworthy." I was initially pretty pissed off. The audacity of this author! Then "it" came to me. There is no real playbook for this shit. Maybe the real message was to simply "wing-it". I may have the brain of an adolescent retard, but I am, by all means, an actual adult. I can now look back at multiple moments in my life with the realization that my parents had no fucking clue. They were just winging-it. However, I severely overestimated my ability to parent when we baked Cake. I thought parenting was a wash, rinse, and repeat process. I thought I was now qualified because Kelly was still alive. Cake said, "Fuck you rules" though. What you have read thus far is nothing more than a rant. Just a genuine bitch-session. I figure I should detail some life lessons I have learned because of Cake, the kid that occasionally makes me want to watching his feet kicking back-and-forth in a fit, but only because I have his head six inches deep in toilet water. My youngest boy (Head Shaking!), fucking Cake. Shit Missiles Cake had superpowers that Kelly never attained. We were initially unaware he was genetically-flawed and had "mild" soy and dairy allergies. The doctor said "mild". Well, that guy was a fucking liar. I don't call using four wet wipes to clean projectile shit from his neck "mild." I would argue for a "severe" diagnoses at the very least. That kid shit could out-shit dysentery. Cake Brain: Poop before or after dad changes my diaper? Cake's Asshole: During! Cute Moments For the most part, all the bad moments can be erased with one moment of cuteness. I could literally be five minutes out from utilizing the Safe Haven Law, and then Cake would do or say something that made me love him again. You read correct! Cake (4YO): Can I cuss? OP: What? Cake: I want to cuss. Wife: Cake. Do you know what cussing is? Cake: Yes, but I want to say one word. OP Brain: Fuck it. I will give you one opportunity, but please don't let me down or fuck this up. OP: What's the F-word Cake? The cute part; Cake literally started looking left and right, as if he was ensuring he wouldn't get in trouble. Then he softly whispered... Cake: BIIITTTTCCCCCHHHHHH. You done did messed up A-A-Ron. He was four though. I suppose I should celebrate that as a victory!?! For the un-parents out there, please always be cognizant that your crotch goblins are very observant creatures. They quickly pick up, and emulate your piss poor habits. I had just been cut-off in traffic. I had the right-of-way, but Susie-fucking-snowbird and her Q-Tip colored hair decided it was okay for her to disregard the octagon-shaped sign that states, "Bitch. Wait your turn." I muffled a shallow "Fuck You," but then noticed her look of absolute disgust as she passed by my car. Then I see, Cake, flipping her "the bird" from my side-view mirror. Sweet! Cake can count to one. Then you have the moments that start cute, and go south. I have my nightly introvert-routine. I want to watch the national news, and then test my knowledge while watching Jeopardy afterwards. It is my much needed hour to decompress each night. My leave me the fuck alone time. A very chunky Cake rolled up to the couch, baby blanket in one hand and an unopened bag of Puff Cheetos in the other. He needed help murdering the bag open. I opened it, but he decided to plop down next to me as opposed to finger-painting the white curtains Cheetos orange with his little dick-beaters. He wanted to share. I don't particularly like puffed Cheetos, but fuck it. It was an olive-branch from a terrorist. I obliged. I was five minutes into Jeopardy and I reached my hand into the bag, but something was off. It was plain-fucking-gross. I pull out a gooey, disgusting, wet fucking Cheeto. I initially thought there was something wrong with the packaging, but then I turn to see Cake, giving each puffed morsel a toddler blowjob. He sucked off every bit of flavoring, and then shoved the wet mess back in the back. I had just found his discards. OP: Cake. They are not pistachios. You can eat the entire thing. Cake: (Shoulder Shrug): I only like the cheese dad! You Got Fucking Jokes Cake was a huge fan of jokes, particularly knock-knock jokes. I don't know if he picked this up at daycare, or kindergarten. I know he didn't get it from grandpa, because he would be using the official F-word a bunch. I, as you man know, am a huge fan of humor. I love it. Humor gets me through the day, but I despise a poorly told joke, and I hold everyone to high standards. It was extremely frustrating to endure twenty jokes in a car ride home that all sucked. Cake: Dad. Knock-Knock. OP: Who is there? Cake: Carrot. OP: Carrot who? Cake: (Hysterically laughing) I got you! Imagine twenty jokes exactly like that, while your toddler-terrorist maniacally laughs. This particular day was long. I just wanted to rest when I got home. I merely wanted five minutes to myself before the chaos started. I had just endured 20 minutes of piss-poor comedy, but Cake was not done. He had, "one more joke dad." Cake: Knock-Knock. OP: Who is there? Cake: Smell Mop OP: Smell Mop Who? Cake is now rolling on the floor. Kelly is rolling on the floor. Lola may have been worried about being attacked with a scissors, but even she was wondering what the hell was going on. What the fuck was I missing? Why was this specific knock-knock joke funny to Kelly? What the actual fuck? OP: Smell Mop Who? Smell Mop Who? The kids are still rolling, the dog is barking, and I just start saying it faster. OP: Smell Mop Who? Then Cake, in Cake fashion, lets out a thunderous fart with superb ass-acoustics. Just a sweet smell bum-rumble! Cake: Dad. Smell My Poo! OP: Smell Mop Who....SMELL MY POO!!! I had just been out-potaoed, by the potato. Outwitted by a fucking four year old. Read whatever the hell you want Reader. Please be sure to let me know when you read a book that prepares you for that shit there. Smell my poo! Cake is 11 now, and is currently in that transition phase of life. The phase where you go from optional deodorant to "Deodorant. NOW. EVERYDAY". He arrived home from soccer practice drenched in sweat last night. Sweating like a whore in Church with a disheveled look on his face. Cake: Dad. Do I have to take a shower? OP: Yes. It's not optional nor negotiable. Feet. Balls. Ass. NOW! Cake: Can I take a bath? OP: I don't care so long as water and soap hits your... Cake: Feet, balls and... OP: BUTT Cake: Do you take baths? OP: Not really. Cake: Why? OP: Because when I am really dirty, the bath water gets really dirty, and it don't feel as clean as I do when I take a shower. Cake: Are showers better? OP: For you they are. Cake: Cause I get cleaner? OP: No. Because I don't have to worry about your drowning in five inches of water. Cake: (Huge Grin, and I was laughing) Bet you I could drown in a shower! OP: I bet you could buddy! Lastly, I remember something else during my rant response to the thought provoking Redditor. Punishment. Feel free to call me a bad parent, but I have adopted a technique that I use to extract confessions. It is pretty low-level shit, and there is no need to waterboard, yet. This specific technique is not mine, and I learned it during my torturous time at Confraternity of Christian Doctrine (CCD). My God! Those nuns hated me and I hated them, but I learned this: OP: Cake. Have a seat. Cake: What? OP: (Calm. Be Calm) What did you do wrong? Cake: Ummm. OP: You're sitting this chair for a reason, and I am disappointed in you. Cake: I spent $20 dollars on V-Bucks (FAKE FUCKING MONEY) and didn't ask. OP: No XBox for a week. This is not the preferred technique and you MUST space it out. Parents don't have time to parent 24/7. Impossible. However, the rabbit jackals that live upstairs MUST believe you are capable of this. It's a lie, but they are necessary lies. But OP, you lie to your kids? But Reader, do you still think Santa Claus is real, or are you fucking Santa Claus? I am getting sick and tired of trying to create elaborate scenes for Elf on a Shelf too. Did I ruin it, or did you think he constructed that beautiful parachute and got stuck on the ceiling fan when he jump from a plane you didn't hear, in the middle of the night, that flew through our fucking house? Yeah. I lie. Fellow Fuckery Readers. Thanks for rant-riding. I know it wasn't funny, but I just had to procrastinate about work. I needed a ten minute rant and no editing. Good news though. I have 26 full-blown stories on deck; I wrote unforgettable titles to I remember to detail the events for you. There are two Hawks, numerous Gunfighter Dads, and the introduction of many new characters to include OP. I will save off on mine, because I want you to "think less of me" sometime next year. Be Rona free, Safe, and Cheers!
Not Financial Advice (NFA) Warning: Wall of Text. If you hate reading just skim through the bolded/italicized Ever since I publicized my findings on DKNG, the stock has underperformed & probably has fucked a lot of people here, especially given the overly bullish stance back in June. Unless you took my advice & got into Puts then, congrats, welcome to tendie town. For the ADHD retards, here’s what the next wall of text is going to summarize: I believe at the current price of ~$30, the stock is oversold. A tech-focused, high-growth Company that has made sports betting easy to understand with an aesthetically pleasing interface similar to how Robinhood has neatly laid out stock market gimmicks so even high-schoolers can make sense of it I believe, is underpriced at these levels. Let’s get into some details as to why the stock has underperformed: First off, the news slate revolving sports with the rumored delay/cancellation of the MLB season & the NFL watching from the sidelines is in my view, just a part of why the stock has underperformed. We’ll revisit this later in this post, but I want to focus on the drivers of the stock’s recent underperformance, & why these factors are now in the rearview mirror. Part I – The Past Has Passed – SPAC-related Equity Dilution History lesson first: DKNG went public via a SPAC merger, which has exploded in popularity recently. Anyone serious about analyzing stocks going forward needs to do their homework on this, Google is your friend. A feature of most SPAC merger to public listings that creates a headwind to near-term share prices are embedded equity dilution events, usually in the form of earn-outs (stock bonuses to execs, the SPAC sponsor) & conversion of Warrants. On 5/24, the earn-outs were triggered, adding 6m shares to the share count. On 6/26, 16.3m warrants converted to DKNG, netting them ~$188m of cash. Stepping back a little, in addition to the above, on 6/18 DKNG launched a follow-on equity offering of 16M shares @ $40/Share , receiving $621M in proceeds. The last part is tricky to understand from a dilution perspective. To simplify, historically it’s almost a coin toss whether a Company’s shares outperform on the onset of an equity offering. While issuing shares does dilute the existing shareholder base, it theoretically shouldn’t, if the proceeds from the offering are earmarked for investments/projects that yield outsized returns. This is the reality for the long term, theory for the short-term. For the short-term, the ‘reality’ isn’t that the proceeds will be used for investments/projects that yield outsized returns, it is more about how convincing management is to investors that the investments they intend to pursue with the proceeds will outweigh the dilutive effects of issuing incremental shares. That’s a mouthful, but hopefully you get what I’m trying to convey. All of this stuff put together – the Company has increased its share count by ~39M, but now has a whopping ~$1.4Bn of cash . More on this in the next section. Part II – MLB News Should Not Fucking Matter & DKNG Is Positioned As the Leading Online/Mobile Sports Platform DKNG should not be so tied to MLB news or any of this shit as the ongoing success of the NBA/NHL season + Soccer in Europe has effectively created a blueprint on how to regulate player behavior so that they maintain professionalism amidst the pandemic. I’m going out on a whim here, but I truly think the MLB threatening a cancellation of the season is pure posturing to get these fuckers to behave appropriately. Maybe a ‘bubble’ is what it takes to get these players to focus on their jobs instead of going out & contracting COVID, but I argue that isn’t necessarily required given Soccer in Europe. So there’s already a proven path here without the need for a bubble in Soccer, so MLB/NFL should be fine, and execs need to study how they got it done in Europe. Okay, back to some facts. Anecdotally, I’ve kept in touch with a handful of sports bookies from California to New York & even internationally about what they’re seeing – all of them say that since the NBA season started on 7/30 & since Soccer (especially the Premier League) resumed in June, along with other leagues like La Liga & Serie A, they’ve seen massive increases in betting. These numbers are also showing up in the official data :
Average % increase in sports betting handle from April 2020 to June 2020 (handle is the total $ wagered in sports bets) from the states that reported up to June 2020 (NJ, PA, MS, RI, WV, IA, IN, NH) of +258%!
Note: NV is left out due to the site I sourced showing a weirdly negative number – so I dug into the official filings & show specifically, Sports Mobile betting growth from June since April has growing by at least +73% 
REMEMBER: This is for June only! No NBA, No NHL, No MLB, just Soccer, Golf, NASCAR & UFC. The data clearly shows that there was a ton of pent-up sports betting demand, which leads one Wall St. analyst to think that betting on the NBA/NHL could ABSORB the MLB’s sports betting handle (handle = total $ size of sports bet) . Remember, the MLB season is still ongoing, with games being played. The entire focus is on the Miami Marlins & St. Louis Cardinals. Fucking retards. Additionally, I want to remind everyone that DraftKings.com is the #1 Fantasy sports website in the U.S. . Also, since April 2020 site visitations are up +86%  & Google Search Trends for “Draft Kings” is up ~3xcompared to PRE-COVID levels . What does this mean? They are piquing more people’s curiosity than prior to COVID/ongoing slate of sports. This is important because remember that ~$1.4Bn chest full of cash I mentioned DKNG had assembled earlier? Well, that money is being put to work & results are already coming in, which is exactly what DKNG intended to do with it. Part III – Legalization of Sports Betting in the U.S. I could write a fucking bible on this topic alone, but for now we’ll stick to some basics. Due to COVID, it’s easy to understand that each State’s financial situation is clearly in shit. Because of this, you better believe that these guys are going to start taking a hard look at how they can extract additional tax revenues, & what’s one of the easiest ways to do this? Legalization & taxation of gambling. The big players: CA, TX, FL & NY. First, CA pushing its legislation out to 2023 was fucked up, but here’s a twist I want to add to this: Anything that has to do with gambling in CA you better believe is lobbied against by not just the Tribal casino owners in CA, but by the deep pockets of Las Vegas money. Similar thing can be said for FL, but let’s take a look at some actions by LV/nationwide gambling companies that are starting to align financial incentives with guys like DKNG.
MGM / GVC Holdings JV in BetMGM - $450m total invested
PENN invests $163m into BS Sports
Caesars has a 20% stake in William Hill plus partnership deals with The Stars Group (TSG) & our winner DKNG for operating its sports books
So it’s safe to say going forward, nationwide legalization of sports betting will reap rewards for everyone involved, & no longer be something LV money is completely focused on safeguarding. Let’s also not forget that DKNG didn’t become the Company they are today because of their fancy app, but because their management team has a HISTORY of navigating the U.S.’s legal framework to get what they want out of it.
The Crown Jewel – The Internet Gambling Prohibition & Enforcement Act: I said it in a previous post, but I want to emphasize that them getting Fantasy Sports to be labeled a ‘game of skill’ by FEDERAL Law as opposed to gambling is just something for the history books. Fucking genius shit. When this happened I bet every casino from LV to every Indian Tribe that has one was against it, yet DKNG & other DFS providers won.
There’s more, but more recently: Getting into IL:
In IL, there’s an 18-month ‘penalty box’ for Companies that offer DFS to offer sports betting. Our guys at DKNG created a workaround to this situation with their partnership with Casino Queen . DKNG being savvy again.
Hey! I’m Mike, CMO at Betting Insider. Betting Insider is a social network made by a group of sports fans special for tipsters. I’m not here to advertise our product, we just want to receive feedback from the community. Why us:
Free soccer tips (MLB & NBA are coming next)
Automatic track record of all your bets
Community: matchday chats & blogs
Soccer stats: top 5 bets widget, oveunder leaderboard etc.
You can type in “betting insider” in Google or AppStore/Google play to find us. We are working on parlays, NBA/MLB predictions and marketplace.
Going through old issues of the Wrestling Observer Newsletter and posting highlights in my own words, continuing in the footsteps of daprice82. For anyone interested, I highly recommend signing up for the actual site at f4wonline and checking out the full archives. • PREVIOUS • 1987 FUTURE YEARS ARCHIVE: The Complete Observer Rewind Archive by daprice82
”This is horrible, Gorilla.” These words open the issue this week, because Wrestlemania IV is in the books and, well, it was not pretty. Dave is flabbergasted by how bad a show it was, wondering if this was a dream or a nightmare that he hasn’t woken up from. Wrestlemania III was the best wrestling production of all time. It may not have had the best card, but it was entertaining all around and the fans loved it. It set Vince up as the king of wrestling, all-powerful over the business. He’s still the king, but he’s definitely not all-powerful, and Crockett absolutely kicked Vince’s ass on March 27. Financials will take time to come in, and of course McMahon will win that measure, but we can flash back to January 24 for an analogue: The Royal Rumble won even though the Bunkhouse Finals made more money.
Preliminary info Dave has gotten from phoning cable companies and hearing from fans at closed-circuit site is that Wrestlemania interest was down by nearly half of last year’s. The buyrate for ppv could be as low as 6 percent, half of WWF’s expected 12% and still way down from last year’s 10.3%. Even so, the PPV gross would be $10.8 million, of which WWF can expect no more than $3.5 million, plus an estimated $2.3 million from a minimum 175,000 (last year had 375,000) at closed-circuit and a live gate of about $ million and an undisclosed site fee from Donald Trump for putting on the show. The early (and I mean early, don’t get attached to these numbers) overall estimate is a total gross of $14 million, with WWF netting maybe $6.5 million, a far cry from the $18 million they were predicting their take would be. How much was because Crockett ran the Clash? How much was because WWF just has been less interesting? It’s hard to say, but Crockett hurt McMahon way more than anyone could have anticipated.
As for the shows themselves, just absolute night and day between them. Crockett’s Clash was a really solid show. It wasn’t as polished a production and only had 30 minutes of wrestling in the first 90 minutes of the show, though this was to allow Sting/Flair to work without commercial breaks so it was an overall benefit. The matches, minus the barbed wire one, were all good. The crowd was into it. Two excellent matches. Probably best to never let Steve Williams talk again, though. The Jim Cornette and Eddie Haskel bit was great and made Bob Uecker and Gene Okerlund look worse than they were. Meanwhile, Wrestlemania made Starrcade 1987 look like Starrcade 1985, and that’s too nice to say even. WWF’s guys, rather than working harder because it was Wrestlemania, opted to phone it in instead because Wrestlemania itself would carry the day. Even Jesse Ventura had no good lines and coasted while Gorilla was like soundbites of his Wrestling Challenge commentary.
Anyway, Dave breaks down the major problems for WWF, as he sees them. 1) Hogan - he’s too over, to the point he overshadows everything else and by booking him as just one of the guys in the field, they completely devalued their star attraction. And instead of putting Randy over at the end, which they need to do if they’re going to try and have him be even close to as over as Hulk has been, they put Liz and Hulk over. “It’s like Randy can’t even order a taxi cab unless Liz tells Hulk to flag down the cab.” 2) Hindsight is always 20/20, but Trump Plaza was a terrible venue for a Wrestlemania, and the crowd just wasn’t a wrestling crowd, so they were not invested at all. 3) Steroids. Dave supposes he’s probably the most hated person in the world among the heavy steroid users in the business because of all the nicknames he gives them, but in all seriousness it was embarrassing to watch so many guys get blown up in a minute or two to where they couldn’t even pace out a five minute match. Like, take out the health issues, take out any sense of blame on the guys, Dave says. The tournament was embarrassing. It wasn’t funny to see the guys fail like this. It was just sad. 4) The tournament as a concept flopped. It gave fans no specific issue to focus on because belts in modern wrestling just don’t mean anything to fans - the real draw is the big personalities, and WWF proved it with this show: the only matches anyone cared about were the ones with Hogan and, to a lesser extent, DiBiase and Savage. 5) Spoilers. Too many people knew the outcome, and giving Savage the title is almost a mistake after you’ve given so many spoilers of your own show. ABC News did a report the morning after, saying “Randy Savage was the winner at Wrestlemania, but of course everyone knew it since the WWF magazine had printed the result three weeks ago. The WWF claims the magazine report was simply a typographical error.” Anyway, Dave is sick of people blaming him for their wrestling promotions not being able to draw fans at live shows when they aren’t interesting enough. Newsletter subscribers are maybe 0.002% of the viewing audience - if all Dave’s subscribers quit watching nobody would notice in the viewing numbers. Meanwhile, the fans who read newsletters are probably the most dedicated and put more money into the business than the “marks” do and will be the ones stubbornly holding on to the end if the business somehow were to die. So don’t blame Dave if your show sucks and your creative is bad and you give away your finish weeks ahead of time and don’t even bother changing it.
Anyway, Wrestlemania preliminary numbers time. About 540,000 homes on PPV, plus 195,000 through closed-circuit, as far as the U.S. goes. They did just 95 closed-circuit sites in the U.S., 39 of which had less than 2,000 capacity. No word on Crockett’s ratings, but if they hit a 5 on TBS that’s about 2 million homes.
So all that said, time to look at the Wrestlemania card. Good production, particularly the opening graphics, but not as far ahead of Crockett as last year now that they’ve upped their game. Battle royal started hot and quickly became your standard boring battle royal. The Hart/Badnews angle at the end saves the match from a dud and gets it half a star. DiBiase vs. Duggan was real slow for a five minute match, and Duggan no longer resembles the worker he was in UWF/Mid-South just a couple years ago. Very little heat. 1.5 stars. Muraco vs. Bravo gets half a star, and both were blown up by the double clothesline like they’d wrestled a hard 20 minutes, but the whole match was under 5. Valentine vs. Steamboat saw Valentine look tired and old, and just not have his famed longevity anymore. Good finish, solid work even with the timing issues. Steamboat coming out with his son and being able to be lost in the moment of just being a proud father was “a tremendous sight” for Dave. 2.25 stars. Savage vs. Reed got a pop for the finish but nothing else, really. 1 star. One Man Gang vs. Bam Bam Bigelow wasn’t good. It was obvious how bad Bigelow’s knee was, and that takes away his agility, which is the thing that sets him apart. Dave says this is a -1.5 star match in a vacuum, but considering Bam Bam’s condition he’s not going to rate it that low and calls it a dud instead. Rick Rude vs. Jake Roberts was a 15 minute draw and Dave hated it. He hated Rude’s tights, the many long rest holds, the fact that there just weren’t any moves in there to pop the crowd, and the fact that the crowd chanted boring. Worst match of the year candidate. -2 stars. Ultimate Warrior blew up before he entered the ring for his match with Hercules and the match was bad. -1.5 stars, and Dave says it was worse than Rude vs. Roberts, but gets a better rating for knowing when to be done quick and not overstaying its welcome like the other match did.
Wrestlemania continued, because holy shit that was a really long paragraph and we needed an intermission. Round two saw Hogan and Andre go to a double disqualification to start off. Andre could barely stand by two and a half minutes in. Lots of shenanigans, Virgil took a nasty suplex on the floor where Hulk didn’t protect him at all, but there’s a glimmer of a future face push for him at least. Maybe his father’s a plumber, Dave quips. Half a star if you ignore the posing at the end (dud if you count the posing). But really, the crowd came to see Hogan pose. DiBiase vs. Muraco had no heat but decent action for its short stay. 1.5 stars. Savage vs. Valentine was good, well-paced with good action. 2.5 stars. Beefer vs. Honkytonk Man amazed Dave since neither was over at all when both usually are decently over. Sherri Martel made more noise than the entire audience. Loads of shenanigans, Beefer’s new haircut makes him look like a Davey Boy Smith with less wrestling ability, dud. Islanders and Heenan vs. Koko and the Bulldogs had some decent comedy and started okay, but got boring quick. 1.25 stars. Savage vs. One Man Gang was watchable but the finish sucked. Half a star. Demolition vs. Santana and Martel was solid throughout, although the crowd seemed on Demolition’s side. If the crowd had been responsive this would have been a really good match rather than just pretty good at 2.5 stars. DiBiase vs. Savage saw the crowd missing “two top-flight guys trying to work a good match” because they were watching the entrance waiting for Hogan. Savage sends Liz to get Hogan, Hogan evens the odds, Savage wins, Hogan must pose. 2.25 stars. Once round two started, the show was pretty decent, Dave thinks, just the first half of the show wasn’t RestholdMania, but Rigor Mortis Mania.
Over in Crockett Country, it’s a whole different story. They drew 6,000 fans to the Greensboro Coliseum, and all six thousand were champing at the bit for the show, which created a great energy that the wrestlers fed on for their matches. Rotunda retained the TV Title against Jimmy Garvin in the amateur rules match with a one-count pin, pinning Garvin a minute into the second round. 2.5 stars. The Midnight Express beat the Fantastics by DQ to retain the U.S. Tag Titles in a classic Memphis style brawl that was so action packed the cameras missed a lot of it. Dave gives them 4.25 stars, saying the action earned it 4.5, but the overused finish with the over the top rope throw and the referee reversing the decision lost it half a star, but then the post-match action with Corette lashing Bobby Fulton’s back with a belt got it back a quarter star. Dusty and the Road Warriors (the Rhode Warriors, I almost typed) beat Warlord and Barbarian and Ivan Koloff in a real short barbed wire match, and Dave notes the resemblance between Dudty wearing facepaint and a black t-shirt and Dump Matsumoto (with the notable difference that Dump is prettier). Ivan was bleeding after 20 seconds and Dusty after 90. Dave hates these matches - everyone gets all cautious and careful and stays in the center of the ring, so nothing really happens. 1 star. Luger and Barry Windham beat Arn and Tully for the NWA Tag Titles. Good match all around, 3.5 stars. Flair and Sting had a 45 minute draw for the NWA Title in a match of the year candidate. Slow pace to start, but the heat kept up and they weren’t dull and Flair sold the hell out of every rest hold. Jim Ross and Tony Schiavone did fantastic work on this, particularly Ross who sold the intensity and importance of the match, which was critical for the first half (if only he were still able to do that today). There were supposed to be three judges, but there were five people at the table, only two of them didn’t vote, so no idea what the point there was. Anyway, Patty Mullen (Penthouse Pet of the year and who had been on Ric’s arm the night before on tv) picked Flair. Gary Juster, former NWA promoter, voted for Sting. Sandy Scott then ruled it a draw, and nothing came of the judging gimmick which made it utterly pointless. 4.75 stars
During Clash of the Champions, after the first match, there was an ad on TBS for the WWF 900 number advertising play-by-play for Wrestlemania. WWF managed to get an ad on TBS during Crockett’s big special, and that’s hilarious. They also ran the first ad for the new Four Horsemen vitamins, which was hilarious but unintentionally so, and Dave thinks they aren’t going to sell a lot of those vitamins.
Last week Dave teased a big story, and it’s that Crockett has been negotiating with Ken Mantell of World Class Dave didn’t give any details beyond the tease last week because he was hoping to get more before press time. He promises to never note a major story the way he did again without giving more details up front, because he expected more details to break before he had to print copy but it didn’t. Anyway, negotiations have been ongoing for ten days and there are conflicting reports. Crockett’s goal is taking over World Class the way they did Florida, getting the valuable channel 11 time slot on Saturday nights in Dallas. They’re going to need Fritz on board to complete the deal, though. If it does go through, Kerry and Kevin will have guaranteed work and a push in the NWA, but neither really seems to want the travel, so they’d likely get a deal for local stuff and maybe occasional work in St. Louis. The bottom line everyone needs to consider, though, is that Mantell and Michael Hayes may be the most creative bookers anywhere right now, but they aren’t turning WCCW’s business around and it just may not work out that they can. Dave doesn’t expect a deal done now, but he thinks Mantell and Hayes may give themselves until May to see if their hard work will pay off before considering any offers.
An example of that creative booking is the WCCW title change on March 25 in Dallas. Hayes was at ringside with Kerry while Black Bart and Buddy Roberts were for Parsons. Iceman King Parsons is one of the least likely champions in wrestling history, and the match wasn’t particularly good, but the finish saw the lights go out after Terry Gordy came down, at which point Bart and Roberts used flashlights to blind the fans in the front row so nobody could see what happened. When the lights came back on, Kerry was knocked out in the ring, Hayes was bleeding on the floor, nobody knew who hit whom, and Parsons pinned Kerry to win the belt. They even had Kerry carted out on a stretcher. Dave doesn’t think (and actively prays against) Parsons will hold it for long. Hayes looks like the best prospect (nope. It’s going back to Kerry in May at the Von Erich Memorial Parade of Champions). Also, I just learned that King Parsons is his real legal name. I always thought combining Iceman and King was a weird combo of gimmicks, so that solves a mystery for me.
Eddie Gilbert is leaving Memphis to book for Continental beginning April 10. Continental’s business is bottoming out and it’ll be interesting to see if Gilbert and Missy can get things going there again like they did in Memphis. This also puts Memphis in some dire straits, since the Gilberts were basically all their storylines and they were drawing triple what they had been by giving the Gilberts such big spotlight, so they’re in trouble.
Lanny Poffo, brother of WWF Champion Randy Savage, has a book coming out called Wrestling with Rhyme. It’s a book of poetry coming out in late April and will be available at Walden Books. Man, I remember when Walden went out of business. It was a sad day for me.
The only news Dave has from Japan right now is that Bruiser Brody beat Jumbo Tsuruta for the International Title at Budokan Hall on March 27. Tenryu also retained his PWF Title against Hansen.
Roddy Piper’s latest project is a new film going into production called They Live.
A correction on the Bruno Sammartino stuff. WWF isn’t trying to ban Bruno from using his name. They’re trying to ban him from using the trademarked nickname “The Living Legend” in contexts outside WWF. There’s a lot of talk about his radio interview , and some excerpts in the mail section of this issue.
There’s a film in the works about former Olympic and pro wrestler Chris Taylor. Taylor was a 450 lb wrestler from Iowa who won bronze in the 1972 Olympics and died in 1979. A book about him called “The Gentle Giant” is being adapted into a film, currently called “Lean On Me.” That does not wind up being the title, and I can’t find a movie based on him so this might have gotten scrapped. In other biopic news, no word from Hollywood on any upcoming Hulk Hogan movie.
WWF went up to the number 4 slot in the syndicated ratings for the week ending Feb. 28. They had a 10.6 rating, an increase on the previous week. Crockett’s network fell to number 9 with a 7.6.
Paul E. Dangerously firing Joe Pedicino, Gordon Solie, and Boni Blackstone on Pro Wrestling this Week aired this past weekend. It was fantastic stuff, and Paul has cemented himself as one of the top managers in the business. This is all part of a reformatting of the show to a 30 minute format with Pedicino and Patrick Schaeffer (who was the mastermind behind Global doing an IPO to build up a million dollars of operating capital) at the helm, with Schaeffer as the heel commentator.
Crockett had a big angle taped on March 21 that they aired this past Saturday, involving Magnum T.A. Magnum was doing an interview when Tully and J.J. came out, then Barry Windham came out and Tully popped Windham with a hit, then hit Magnum. J.J. was behind Magnum and helped Magnum gently go to ground, then Dusty barged in with a baseball bat and swung for the fences on Tully, then knocks out Jim Crockett without realizing who he’s swinging at when Jim and David Crockett and Rob Garner try to restore order. Jim Cornette did a tearful interview about his “good friend Jim Crockett” and Magnum even bladed, though that last didn’t make it to tv. Later on, Magnum came out and hit Tully with a bat in a match to cause a disqualification. Dave loved the concept here at first because you have to imagine Magnum hates being on the sidelines and wants to be involved to some extent and this gives him something to sink his teeth into. At the same time, “the idea of beating up a cripple, which unfortunately is the reality of the situation” is just kind of pathetic. That said, it’ll draw, and it’ll let Dusty (with Magnum in his corner) push himself as top star once again, and it may even be enough to put heat back on Dusty vs. Tully. Dusty will be suspended for 120 days come Saturday’s tv (taking us into July - will we see the Midnight Rider face Flair at the Bash, Dave wonders), Dusty will return as the Midnight Rider with Magnum at his side, and he’ll likely get the U.S. title in the tournament they’re going to hold in May.
The Oregon State Athletic Commission held a public hearing on March 18. Topics mostly stuck to safety concerns such as cleaning the mats, barriers at ringside, security, mats on the floor by ringside, etc. A lot of wrestlers were there, along with Billy Jack Haynes and Don and Barry Owen. Most of the wrestlers were negative about the Owens’ promotion, with only Tony Borne and Art Crews saying anything positive. Borne testified against the idea of using mats outside the ring, saying it’s not going to help as much as it hurts the visual effect of a spill to the floor. He also said the commission’s drug testing proposal went too far by including painkillers and marijuana on top of cocaine. The commission indicated they’ll be looking at action like the use of chairs in the future and potentially issuing fines. They also clarified their stance on blood: hardway is good, blading is bad. It’s pretty absurd to say that the more dangerous way of getting color is good but blading is bad, but this whole blood thing has become a thing for commissions around the country because blading sounds absolutely insane to people outside the industry, and even Dave has mixed feelings about it. On the one hand, blading is a minor safety issue at best, especially compared to rampant steroid and drug use and nasty bumps. On the other, Dave’s not sure fans are really drawn by excessive bleeding either, and probably actually turns off a large number of potential casual viewers. It doesn’t hurt if kept rare, but it doesn’t help if half the matches have it. And more dangerous to the wrestlers in a blood match than AIDS (they’re more likely to get that from outside activities) is scabies, which Owen’s wrestlers had an outbreak of not too far back. Rip Oliver said he’s gotten scabies four times since July and wound up giving it to his wife and kids on top of it. The outbreak led the Commission to pass a ruling against wrestlers working while they have communicable diseases and that they must notify promoters.
Eddie Gilbert vs. Jerry Lawler on March 21 drew 6,000 fans for Memphis. Gilbert won in what’s being hailed as a great match (and Dave’s heard their match the week before was even better). On tv on March 26 Gilbert acted like he was going to throw fire at Lance Russell, which got Lawler out from backstage in his first tv appearance in a month. They wound up brawling into the parking lot and Gilbert slammed Lawler on the hood of a car, shattering the windshield.
Scott Rechsteiner, using the ring name Scott Steiner, debuted as a babyface in Memphis recently. No mention of peaks or freaks yet.
Some random trivia about AWA Tag champ Paul Diamond. His real name is Tom Boric, and he was born in Winnipeg, you idiots, on May 11, 1961. He played soccer for the Tampa Bay Rowdies in the old North American Soccer League and was drafted sixth in the 1980 collegiate draft by the Calgary Boomers, before getting traded to Tampa in 1982. He stayed until the NASL folded, which is when he got into wrestling.
Anyway, Diamond and Tanaka won the belts because the Midnight Rockers wanted $500 a week guaranteed to stay and Verne doesn’t believe in guaranteed money. They don’t appear to have left yet.
[Continental] Looks like Eddie Gilbert is replacing Robert Fuller and going to be sole booker.
[USA] The other spinoff from the old Continental promotion ran its first big show in Knoxville, drawing a $10,000 gate. Previous sellouts there hit $27,000, to give an indication of relative value there. Not a lot to report about this. Moondog Spot is there as “The Dog.” He’s not a big dog. He’s not a little dog. He’s The Dog.
WCCW drew 1,700 on March 25 for their Dallas show, where Kerry dropped the title to Parsons. The other main event had Michael Hayes vs. Buddy Roberts, and Roberts kept trying to apologize for hitting Hayes, but Hayes wasn’t going to let it slide. Terry Gordy did a run in and broke things up, and told Hayes they sold Angel of Death’s contract so they can all be friends again. Hayes walked out on Gordy, though.
[WCCW] Fabulous Lance keeps getting booked for shows but hasn’t returned. His agent still doesn’t want him to be a heel because it’ll cut down his opportunities for tv and modeling work.
To illustrate how bad business is for World Class, here’s the biggest gate they drew out of three shows last week in Mississippi: $783.
A man named David Peschel of Washington, New Jersey is suing Randy Savage for a million dollars. He alleges that Savage punched and bodyslammed him when he got out of his car at a light to ask Savage for his autograph. He describes Savage as 6’4” and 280 lbs, prompting Dave to ask if this was maybe a different Randy Savage.
Rumor has it that Angelo Poffo put a $1 bet on the Wrestlemania tournament. Apparently, his bet was on Ted DiBiase.
According to a sumo journal in Japan, Futuhaguro is 99% certain he won’t go into pro wrestling. Koji Kitao will debut near the end of 1989 in the AWA, so I’ll put my dollar bet on the 1% chance.
Reader Mike Rodgers attended the Oregon commission hearing on March 18 and writes about his take. The commission is making big improvements to safety that he thinks are great, but thinks they’re overstepping by wanting to legitimately fine wrestlers who use foreign objects or chairs, and says they don’t understand “that promoters do what they can to fill up arenas.” Banning the blade but not blood is just going to increase the chance of legitimate injury, and it’s part of the proof that the commission really isn’t smart to what wrestling really is about.
We get a really long letter on Bruno’s radio interview. The writer taped the second hour and is hoping to get tape of the first hour. But before getting to the good stuff, he first wants to note that lying and silly gimmicks didn’t start in 1984 (was Gorilla Monsoon really from Manchuria? Didn’t Bruno employ gimmick wrestlers when he booked Pittsburgh? How about when he’d blade and claim to have spent the night hospitalized receiving transfusions) and that Bruno’s not really got a leg to stand on for “wrestling must be credible and it is an insult to the fans’ intelligence to lie to them.” Fans knew then just as they know now that it’s a work, but that doesn’t matter - you watch the show because it’s entertaining and you want to see the magician do their tricks. Also, the writer weighs in that the real story with the Main Event will be told by the demographic breakdown rather than the overall rating. In other words, is Hulk Hogan the Demo God? Anyway, after all this preamble, we finally get some quotes from the interview:
Bruno denies blading happened in his day but says “today, nothing would surprise me.”
Says he’ll never work for the NWA. “I wouldn’t touch it with a 50-foot pole.”
He breaks kayfabe on George Steele and says he’s been a teacher for years.
He thinks Bobby Heenan is a “dud and a disgrace” to wrestling.
He compliments Ric Flair as a guy who can give you an exciting 30 or 40 minute match, but the NWA “have an awful lot of bizarre nonsense in there that, to me, is no good.”
He says David wanted to be like him and he tried to warn David that these days they aren’t interested in “guys who just want to wrestle” but he’ll be going to Japan where they appreciate that better.
He didn’t like doing commentary. He just clocked in, did his job, and left as soon as he was done. He was very uncomfortable and unhappy doing it.
Bruno says WWF didn’t really have anything great to generate interest in the tournament for Wrestlemania.
A caller asks if his wrestling was all real, and Bruno says “Well, it was in my day, at least I thought it was.
We get a letter that feels so much like it could have been a post here on /SquaredCircle when Dave rated Omega/Okada 6 stars that I’m posting it in its entirety. Be warned, it is long, kind of racist, and absolutely bonkers, but that’s not unfamiliar around these parts. It gets the headline “Sick of praise for Japan.”
I get so sick of the way that people talk about Japanese wrestling. There’s no question it should be covered extensively in the Observer because it is a significant part of the wrestling world. However, when you start printing letters that criticize the American society and the jazz scene, then you are going way too far. Anyone who thinks the Japanese never forsake quality for showmanship is full of it. The rock group KISS has enjoyed phenomenal success there because of their wild appearence [sic] and stage show. In fact, when they stopped wearing their makeup in the United States, they waited almost two years to do the same in Japan because they knew they wouldn’t be accepted there without it. And what about the movie industry? Do you think Godzilla movies are popular because of great acting? As a student, I find teachers constantly comparing the American intelligence with that of the Japanese. I’m sure that the wrestlers love being compared to Japanese wrestlers as much as I love being compared to Japanese students. The Japanese do well at everything because they become obsessed with it. For them, it’s a matter of pride. If they screw up, it’s not only a mark on themselves but also on their entire family. You may think that’s great, but it puts a lot of pressure on everyone. They spend hours studying and I’m certain spend hours learning wrestling skills and have no time for themselves. Cut the North American wrestlers some slack. They’re just trying to make a living and preserve their bodies in the process. Look at what trying to wrestle like the Japanese did to Tommy Billington. Everyone would love matches filled with nothing but high spots, but working them is a great way to destroy yourself in a hurry. Now there is no excuse for total duds like Hulk Hogan and Andre the Giant either, but there are many non-Japanese who can hold their own without going crazy about it. I wonder how many Observer readers can honestly say that they work as hard at their own jobs as the Japanese in the same profession do. If they do, then I think they would quality [sic] as workaholics. If there is anything wrong with our society, it’s the lack of national pride, which is so evident in the pages of the Observer. You seem to hate everything that wasn’t imported from the other side of the world. I have absolutely nothing against the country of Japan or Japanese wrestling, but I don’t think it’s up to a bunch of wrestling fans to dictate what’s wrong with our country just because they prefer the Oriental style of wrestling. I think the Observer is great, but I’d like to see you stick to writing about wrestling instead of how rotten our way of life is. I’m sure that’s what a Japanese journalist would do.
Anyway, Dave responds to that letter, giving the writer only 4 stars because it’s not in the literally-only-opened-a-couple-weeks-ago Tokyo Dome:
DM: Have I ever written about how rotten our quality of life is or done any cultural comparisons between the U.S. and Japan except to where it pertains to the wrestling business? If I lived in Japan and made a comparison of the quality of the football product and wrote the U.S. product was superior, I hope people wouldn’t take it as an indictment against an entire society.
Lastly, it’s about that time of year, I guess, because we have letters arguing about whether Dave should include GLOW coverage or not. Two letters this week on that theme, the first noting what the writer calls a progression in the letters calling for more coverage of women’s wrestling. First were the calls for more coverage of “conventional” women’s wrestling. Then the calls for GLOW coverage. Then POWW. Guess the next will be coverage of the apartment house wrestling scene, the writer supposes. The other writer claims to speak for 90% of subscribers and says Dave would offend that much of his readership if he covers GLOW and POWW and says that if you even consider GLOW to be pro wrestling, you’re incapable of understanding what makes a match good or not. This one asks if Dave’s going to be asked to cover mud wrestling next. There’s no misogyny problem in wrestling fandom. Move along. Nothing to see here.
Back to news, the Kentucky Athletic Commission has put up some new rules. There are to be guard rails around the ring now. Throwing an opponent over the top rope will result in a fine or suspension. Ditto for any referee who doesn’t immediately stop the match for it. The top rope rule is now state law, as insane as that sounds.
Dave should have national numbers next week, but in Atlanta Clash of the Champions drew an 11.7 rating, with the FlaiSting match hitting 14.5 National numbers will not be nearly that high, but hitting that 5 Dave mentioned earlier that would mean 2 million viewers doesn’t seem so far fetched anymore. Clash beat the NCAA tournament on the networks in Atlanta. TBS is reportedly looking to do another in prime time on a Wednesday early in the summer.
Stampede set up an angle where Johnny Smith (kayfabe Davey Boy’s cousin or brother or something) argued with Diana Hart Smith, which got Owen out to defend his sister. Davey Boy was supposed to come in after Wrestlemania to work with Johnny, but Vince put the kibosh on that. There were also considerations for some Stampede guys to participate in the Crockett Cup, but politics (Vince) made that a no-go. So it’s probably no coincidence that when Owen did the job for Hercules it was just outside Greensboro. Anyway, the real takeaway is that Owen is probably coming over to WWF by the end of the year.
NEXT WEEK:Clash vs. Wrestlemania poll results, Clash ratings and Wrestlemania buyrate, an assload of mini headlines because news is apparently thin next week, and more
Aug/11/2020 news: / Inspectors find some ammonium in Armenia. Beirut aid / How Kocharyan & Serj sold Armenia's infrastructure to Russia / Kocharyan trial / ex-BHK official demands refund. Voter buying / $446M corruption / COVID news & Economy / The story of Dragon Stones / Soccer league renamed /...
How and why Kocharyan & Serj sold Armenia's infrastructure to Russia
FIP writes: After independence, several strategic infrastructure objects were privatized, sold, and handed over to foreign management. The transparency and benefits of these deals were disputed. Some of these deals are "Property in exchange for debt", "Electric Networks of Armenia", "HayGas".
Deal 1: Property in exchange for debt President Robert Kocharyan, Defense Minister Serj Sargsyan, and Russia signed this controversial agreement in 2002. In exchange for the $95M debt that Armenia accumulated between 1994-1998, Armenia agreed to give Russia full ownership and control of:
Hrazdan thermal plant worth $32M. It became part of Inter-RAO-ES. The latter sold it to the Russian-Armenian Tashir group in 2017. Yerevan's Automated Systems worth $3.37M. Yerevan's Mathematical Machines Research Center worth $2.75M. Currently owned by a Russian Citronix firm. Mars factory worth $56M. It was also sold to Citronix in 2008. Material Research and Production Enterprise worth $350K. Later, Mars and that institute would merge and form a free trade zone built by Citronix.
What is Citronix? It's part of the Russian giant SISTEMA firm, one of whose board members was/is none other than Robert Kocharyan. Besides those objects, Russia also received the surrounding lands and a tax waiver.
Deal 2: HayGas HayGas was delivering gas after independence. A month before president Levon's departure, the second player HayRusGazard was created. On April 30, 1998, the new president Kocharyan decided to give Armenia's gas network to HayRusGazard.
HayRusGazard's 45% was then given to Russian Gazprom, 10% to Russian Itera, while 45% remained under Armenian control. As part of the sale, Armenia was supposed to receive $148M worth gas throughout 2.5 years. President Levon later criticized Kocharyan, saying that the fate of the money that was supposed to go into state coffers is still unknown.
Gazprom got another sweet deal. Hrazdan thermal's remaining energy bloc was sold to them for $248M. The latter was supposed to finish its construction. From that $248M, Gazprom didn't have to pay the $188M portion, in exchange for not raising gas prices for Armenian consumers. (eh?)
By 2013, Gazprom had 80% of HayRusGazard shares, with Armenia owning 20%. Armenia then sold the rest to Gasprom and the latter owned 100%. This also guaranteed that Armenia must buy gas from Gasprom until 2043. Gazprom also owns the gas pipeline coming from Iran. It purchased it between 2006-2015.
Deal 3: Electric Networks of Armenia. Privatized in 1998-2000 through an international auction. Despite several popular bidders, the winner was an offshore firm "Midland Resources Holding" owned by a Russian businessman Alexander Shneider. In 2002, the offshore firm and Kocharyan signed the agreement to sell the Network. It was worth $25M, but since it had accumulated debt, it was sold for $12M.
The ownership changed multiple times. The offshore firm sold it to Russian Inter-RAO-ES for $73M (3x original price) in 2006. Inter-RAO is the company that decided to raise electricity prices in 2015, which triggered the iconic Electric Yerevan protests.
Later in 2015, Inter-RAO sold the Network to "Liormand Holding" and "Cascade Energy", both of which are offshore firms owned by Russian-Armenian businessman Samvel Karapetyan (Tashir Group). The latter agreed to co-subsidize the electricity cost to prevent a rise for 1 year, due to protests.
To be continued... Source: https://fip.am/12361 Tags: #Privatizations #Infrastructure #ArmenianFactories
Treaty of Sevres / AM MFA responds to TR MFA
After the Armenian govt members reminded about Sevres treaty and how Armenia was supposed to get its lands back, Turkish govt pushed back with counter-rhetoric, saying that Severs was canceled by Lozan treaty (which was dismissed as false by president Sarkissian yesterday).
Armenian MFA responds: Turkish MFA has once again proven that they're incapable of facing the reality. Turkish govt brags about their Ottoman heritage yet wants to ignore Ottoman agreement [Sevres] with Armenia. The Treaty of Sevres was, is, and will be a historic fact. [She then spoke about the Genocide and current conflicts.] https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1024692.html , https://factor.am/275712.html
CivilNet reporter said: The humanitarian jet that earlier transported aid to Beirut has brought with it 37 Lebanese-Armenians who wanted to settle in Armenia. Armenian community sustained the largest damages. [~$150M]. Now is not the right time to call for mass migration from Lebanon to Armenia. Not only it's insensitive, but you have to ask whether Armenia is capable of housing thousands of people with economic needs. https://youtu.be/gtVmfRJNVBA
Armenian charity union ՀԲԸՄ collected $2M in donations from around the world. Vache and Tamar Manukyan donated a million and will match future donations by doubling it. Donor list: https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1024712.html
Beirut explosion: Does Armenia have similar explosive ammonium?
After the Beirut explosion, the inspectors decided to audit two chemical facilities (Vanadzor and Nairit) to find if they store similar explosive materials.
Inspectors: // we couldn't find 90 tons of ammonium and ammonium liquid as reported by media outlets. The reserves were earlier sold. Only 1 out of 4 containers is 1/6th full with 9 tons of ammonium. The storage contains very little materials to be dangerous. It's not enough to blow up in case of fire. This material quickly evaporates.
Since the factory was bankrupted earlier, the new owner will decide the fate of those 9 tons. It could be sold. (For comparison, 2,700 tons exploded in Beirut). The factory also has very little mercury. It's properly sealed and safe.
However, we found fire safety code violations in the facility and asked the owner to fix it. The facility is in poor shape after being abandoned 4 years ago. More specifically, it doesn't have running water and "Stop" signs. We'll audit Nairit factory and fireworks warehouses next. \\ https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1024624.html
Prosecutors reveal the total sum from corruption investigations
Across Armenia, there were 1,283 felony corruption cases and 873 suspects as of June 30th. Prosecutors seek to recover $446M in damages done to the state. $52M of it has been recovered. $54M assets are frozen. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1024629.html
March 1st: Kocharyan & Co trial is delayed again
Co-defendant Yuri Khachaturov's lawyer couldn't be present. "Something came up. BBL". Another co-defendant's lawyer is on a vacation. The defendants asked the trial to be delayed.
Prosecutor and March 1st victim lawyer asked the judge to punish the defense for "intentionally delaying the trial." The defense accused the prosecutor of themselves delaying the trial last time.
The report says: Shirak prosecutors found that 5 employees of the Social Services department were taking $100 bribes from families who visited for aid-qualification evaluation. The ringleader is arrested. The 5 are facing charges. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1024685.html
ex-BHK member wants a refund
Ashot Sargsyan was managing BHK's office in Yerevan's Norq-Marash district between 2007-2010. Ashot said: // I trusted BHK chief Tsarukyan's promise about appointing me as Goom Market's director if I helped BHK, and used my own $28K to cover office expenses. I gave $20 aid to voters. On rare occasions, I'd pay $200 towards someone's education. (nowadays it's called "bribe")
It is because of our payments that BHK received the most votes in Norq-Marash. (go on...) I'm trying to get that $28K compensated by Tsarukyan. I regret spending it. He only refunded $5K. \\
3Q20: -21% (Correction: not 3Q20 but April-June) 1H20: -11% (-14% small scale trade, -8% large scale) April was the worst because of mandatory restrictions. Trade was growing double-digit before COVID. Overall, the economic activity shrank -4.7% in 1H20. More: https://hetq.am/hy/article/120402
Handle all your paperwork in one building or online
A few weeks ago the govt launched the first universal facility that houses departments from dozens of government agencies, so the citizen won't have to run around to get something done. The one in Yerevan has served 1,500 people so far.
"It took me 6 minutes to submit an application," said an official. "Online queue registration, friendly staff, bank terminals, parking lot," she promised. "I needed to get a document from the Property Registration Agency. They sent me an SMS when it was ready, along with a code. I logged into the website and got it. A physical visit wasn't necessary."
More about archaeological dragon-stones / Ancient cult?
As we learned yesterday, Armenia has hundreds of ancient Vishapaqar stones with dragon paintings. Education Ministry began reinstalling some of them in previous locations where they were found, and decided to flip the stone located in Yerevan Circular Park because it was installed sideways.
Expert explains what Vishapaqar is: // These 3,000 B.C. stones are unique to Armenian Highland's mountainous areas and are at least 1,300m above the ocean level. People used to climb mountains to hold various religious rituals lasting 1-2 weeks. Vishapaqars were used during rituals.
They also served a purpose to unite various tribes. You can find them near Van and Urmiah lakes, too. They resemble khachqars. Each one had to be crafted by a whole group of architects because they are big and made of tough stones.
They were first studied 100 years ago with a renewed interest 10 years ago. You could say that vishapaqars are the ancestors of khachqars. \\ Full: https://youtu.be/qqcQOo4RMYA
Recently, after purchasing quality-verification equipment, the govt has been forcing some construction firms to re-do the asphalt that was of poor quality. The tests are done by the govt-funded "Road Department" agency (smart name).
Their lab uses lasers to check if the asphalt is smooth. It takes asphalt samples to study the composition and density, water levels, thickness. They can test sand, concrete, and several other materials. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1024687.html
10km section of Vardablur-Tashir and nearby bridges are being renovated for the first time in 40 years. Costs $2.1M. https://youtu.be/hI68r9o6FDs
Armenian soccer league has a new name and a sponsor
Armenian soccer doesn't get much love... and money. The admins decided to attract more private funding through a partnership with VBET betting company. VBET will give soccer federation $0.8M this year, then add 10% each year subsequently.
In return, the "Higher League" (where the main teams play) will officially rename into "VBET Armenian Premier League". The "Armenian Cup" will rename to "VBET Armenian Cup". The new logo says "Armenian Premier League" with VBET's icon below.
1) The accused are innocent until proven guilty in the court of law, even if they sound guilty. 2) Currency in Armenian ֏ unless specified otherwise. 3) NSS/SIS/SOC = law enforcement agencies. QP = Civil Contract Party. LHK = Bright Armenia Party. BHK = Prosperous Armenia Party. HHK = Republican Party. ARF = Armenian Revolutionary Federation Party 4) ARCHIVE of older posts by Idontknowmuch: PART 1 ; PART 2 ; PART 3 ; PART 4 ; PART 5. 5) ARCHIVE of older posts by Armeniapedia.
More Free European League Data AND Discussion on Modelling Different Leagues
Hello again - I recently posted data I scraped from whoscored, understat, and oddsportal for the EPL, and I have now updated the google drive (https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1nBejV2S9ojNp3OxtoAxhTTtojSbuvot5?usp=sharing) with data from Serie A and La Liga. I first created a model for the EPL since I collected that data first. I'll outline the model pretty thoroughly below. Happy with the results of the EPL model, I began scraping data for other leagues and was really surprised that the same dependent variables used in the EPL model did not have much predictive power in Serie A or La Liga. Just to be clear, the model is trained and tested separately for each league, but the variables were the same. I would love to see some thoughts about why this would be the case. My model uses Poisson regression to get the predicted probability distribution of goals for each team. I used a leave-one-out process (train on n-1 observations, test on 1 observation, repeatedly). The following variables were used:
"Ball Winning" - interceptions / opponent passes
"Chance Efficiency" - xG / possession
"Shooting Efficiency" - score / xG
"Key Pass Percent" - key passes / passes in the final third
"Pass Success" - accurate passes / total passes
"Dribble Success" - dribbles won / dribbles attempted
"Tackle Success" - tackles won / tackles attempted
"Deep Percent" - deep / accurate passes
"Pass-to-touch Ratio" - passes / touches
"Foul Rate" - Fouls / opponent possession
"Clear Rate" - clearances / opponent's passes in the final third
"Long Pass Percent" - long passes / total passes
"Forward Pass Percent" - forward passes / total passes
"Defensive Third Percent" - passes in defensive third / total passes
"Final Third Percent" - passes in final third / total passes
Note: In practice, the variables regressed on were the expected values for each side of a game. For example, if team A averaged 2 xG throughout all previous games during the season and team B's opponents on average had 1 xG, then team A's xG value for the game was 1.5. Additionally, the variables "Ball Winning" : xPts had an alternate instance included where they were adjusted based on the Elo of the teams that were played in the past (only these variables since these are more related to skill differences while the rest are related to match pace). After getting the predicted probability distributions for each team in a match, I assumed that the scores were independent so that I could simply multiply the probabilities of certain goals for each team to get a score line. For example, if team A has a 50% chance to score 0 goals, and team B has a 50% chance to score 0 goals, the probability of a 0-0 game was assumed to be 25%. I don't think this assumption great, but I did not see the same issue that Dixon and Coles saw with the low scoring games being predicted inaccurately that required an adjusted model. By this point, it is possible to get the probabilities for 1x2, asian handicap, and over under bets. My model, as was the case in the other sport I have built a model for, typically had exaggerated probabilities for the games which hurts the Kelly criterion betting system. So, I run a binary logistic regression with the bet result (win or loss) as the response and my model's probability for winning the bet as the predictor. It seems like this reduces the volatility in betting more so than only using smaller Kelly bets. After doing this, I also use smaller Kelly bets (almost 1/10th size) to obtain the following results from the EPL (1000 simulations of a possible season's worth of betting):
Average Seasonal Return: 0.2992753433324833 (30% ROI)
Percent of Seasons Ending with less than 100% of bankroll: 0.214
Percent of Seasons Ending with less than 75% of bankroll: 0.034
Percent of Seasons Ending with less than 50% of bankroll: 0.0
Percent of Seasons Ending with less than 25% of bankroll: 0.0
So there is a solid overview of my model. Like I said, it only is useful for the EPL - it does not produce anything meaningful for Serie A or La Liga. In general, I think there should be more of a willingness to share what goes into your model, what steps you took, etc on forums like this. It is silly to keep it a secret since the information being out there doesn't realistically hurt your edge. More sharing would help us all along. 2 big questions if anyone can help: 1) Why is there such a significant discrepancy between leagues? Since such a discrepancy exists with my model, does that take away from the reliability of the EPL model to predict EPL games? 2) Are there any other crucial aspects to a soccer game that you think I need to account for that are missing in my variables?
Free Over/Under Betting Tips - European Soccer Predictions If football is undoubtedly the most popular sport in sports betting, the Over/Under betting choice is one of the top options among players. The Over/Under betting market is simple in its nature, offering only 2 choices in betting, for the number of goals scored to be Over or Under a ... Strategies and Tips for Soccer Over/Under Bets. One of the enticing things about soccer over/under betting is the ability to place live bets. Live betting is when you can bet on the outcome of the game after it has already started. For example, Chelsea is playing Manchester United, its 10 minutes in and Chelsea has just scored a goal. Over-Under Betting. Over/under betting involves the punters betting on a number of goals, corners, yellow cards or other events in a match. They don’t need to guess the correct number of the aforementioned events, but rather whether the final number will be over or under the line set by the bookmaker. Over/Under betting, or totals betting, is one of the most popular options for sports bettors along with the point spread and moneyline. Total bets are simply based on the number of points scored ... Unlike a point spread bet in which you are aligning yourself with one team, you’re betting on both teams – either their offenses or the defenses – when betting the over/under. Sports books set over/under scores on games based upon numerous factors. In the NFL, most over/under scores are set in the low-to-mid 40s. In college football, over ...
Totals aka Over / Unders in Sports Betting Explained
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